The Fringe
PGA DFS preview: Genesis Scottish Open and The Renaissance Club
Good morning, Fringe readers!
It’s been a busy holiday weekend and I’m running on fumes at this point, so let’s just get right into it.
The Future
The top golfers on the PGA Tour will cross the Atlantic for the Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick.
There is an alternative field event this week too. The next cut of golfers on tour will be heading to Kentucky for the ISCO Championship at Keene Trace Golf Club. As usual, I will be covering the main event in this preview (I believe Nik at Kahl’s Calls on YouTube will have a preview show on Tuesday night if you’re looking for information on this event).
The Scottish Open has a long, but sporadic, history. It was first played in 1935, and again in the following year. Then it disappeared. The tournament reappeared in 1972 with the formation of the PGA European Tour. It was held again in 1973 but was cancelled in 1974 when a new television contract couldn’t be secured. It reappeared again when the Glasgow Open was rebranded as the Scottish Open in 1986.
In 1987, the tournament was played the week before The Open Championship for the first time, and it continues to hold that spot today.
It looked like the tournament would disappear again when the Loch Lomond World Invitational replaced it on the schedule in 1997, and it did briefly, but in 2001 it was decided that all previous Loch Lomond events would be known as the Scottish Open (leading to the peculiar situation in which there were technically two Scottish Open champions in 1996).
The tournament was finally cemented onto the schedule in 2002 when Barclays took over the title sponsorship and provided a bit of permanence to the event. Aberdeen Asset Management took over the title sponsorship in 2012, followed by Genesis in 2022.
The tournament also has a history of bouncing around to different venues. The first few editions were played at different courses throughout Scotland. Its first semi-permanent home was Gleneagles from 1987 to 1994. It was then hosted by Carnoustie for two years. Lock Lomond became its second semi-permanent home in 1996 (remember, two Scottish Opens in 1996), where it would stay until 2010. A combination of financial difficulties at Loch Lomond, and the desire to have the tournament played at a true links course and serve as a proper warm-up for The Open Championship, led to the search for a new home for the tournament once again. It would move around Scotland for the rest of the decade.
In 2019, the tournament was played at The Renaissance Club for the first time. It is scheduled to stay there through 2026.
The Scottish Open has been part of The Open Qualifying Series since the series was established 2014 and is the last chance for golfers to get into the championship. The Scottish Open has also been a part of the Rolex Series since its founding in 2017 (the Rolex Series is just the name given to the five marquee events on the DP World Tour).
As part of the strategic alliance between the PGA Tour and DP World Tour, both events this week are co-sanctioned by the two entities. The alliance permits 50 DP World Tour members into the ISCO field and 75 PGA Tour members into the Scottish Open field. FedEx Cup and DP World Tour Championship points will be awarded to members of the respective tours. The ISCO is still considered an alternate-field event, with the winner receiving the diminished rewards.
Since moving to The Renaissance, scoring at the Scottish Open, has been dependent on the weather. In ideal weather conditions (for Scotland at this time of year, that’s 60°F with cloudy skies and 10 mph winds), the course is relatively easy. In 2020, the weather was cold and rainy, and scoring was much more difficult. Three years ago, Xander Schauffele, coming off back-to-back wins at the Travelers and the J.P. McManus Pro-Am, persevered through high winds to win by a single stroke over Kurt Kitayama at -7. Two years ago, the wind was close to ideal (two days of ideal conditions and two days 20 mph wind gusts) and there were rain showers throughout tournament week. Rory McIlroy birdied his final two holes to reach -15 and beat out Robert MacIntyre by a single stroke (cutline: -2; median score for cutmakers: -4).
Last year, light winds and soft conditions led to good scoring again. Ludvig Aberg started the final round with a two-shot lead but lost all his momentum and wasn’t a factor down the stretch. Adam Scott holed a bunker shot on the 9th and added three more birdies on his way in to take control of the tournament. Looking to recover from his near miss last year, Robert MacIntyre needed some magic on the closing holes to get it done. That magic came when his drive on the par-5 16th hole found the rough, but a sprinkler head buried deep in the long grasses impacted his stance and he got free relief back into the short grass. The ensuing approach finished six feet from the cup, and he converted the eagle putt to tie Scott at -17. On the 18th hole, he sank a 22-foot birdie putt to take the lead and get his vengeance after his near miss two years ago (cutline: -4; median score for cutmakers: -9).
Here are all the winners of the Scottish Open since moving to the Renaissance, and their scores:
The field
The Scottish Open has always been a staging ground for PGA Tour players looking for a links-style warm-up for The Open Championship, and, therefore, usually had a respectable strength of field. The strategic partnership between the PGA Tour and DP World Tour and the subsequent influx of 75 PGA Tour players has led to the Scottish Open hosting some of the strongest fields in DP World Tour history (outside of the majors). The fields have even been strong by PGA Tour standards.
Last year, the strength of field was 380.1 (5th strongest of 44 tournaments; average was 275.6).
The field is set for 156 golfers with one sponsor exemption and two DP World Tour members yet to be determined.
Another strong field will make the trek to the Firth of Forth this year. Eight of the top ten golfers in the world are in the field (Russell Henley and Keegan Bradley appear to be the only top ten golfers absent from the field). Robert MacIntyre will also be back to defend his championship.
Here is a link to the full field.
Half of the golfers are in the field based off their standing in the DP World Tour; some of these golfers appear on the PGA Tour from time to time, but some are completely unknown to me. My Recent Form and Course History spreadsheet includes results from the DP World Tour (and the other major tours around the world), make sure to download it this week if you need help with the Euros.
Course Description
The Renaissance Club is a private course located in North Berwick, an area that is home to numerous world-renowned links golf courses, aka Scotland’s Golf Coast. In a land full of history and tradition, The Renaissance is a relatively young course, however, opening in 2008. It was designed by Tom Doak and built on a former pine forest adjacent to Muirfield.
On top of hosting the Scottish Open since 2019, it has also hosted the 2017 Scottish Senior Open, and the Ladies Scottish Open in 2019 and 2020.
To American eyes, The Renaissance may look like a traditional links course, but that is a mistake according to more discerning experts. It has many of the features that we associate with links courses: it’s coastal, has sandy soil, it seems to fit seamlessly into the natural topography, it’s firm and fast from tee to green, it has undulating fairways, it has pot bunkers and deep, revetted bunkers, it has long, penal rough, and the green complexes favor the ground game. But the purists would point out that it has some features more characteristic of a heathland course: it has a lot more trees than a links courses, it has old stone walls running through it, it has more elevation changes characteristic of an inland courses and has the vegetation of an inland course. It’s a reasonable argument, only three of the holes are actually exposed to the ocean. But to me, links versus heathland is a distinction without much of a difference; heathland just seems like an inland links course. So, for the sake of my analysis and preparation for DFS, I am going to consider it a links course.
The Renaissance is technically classified as a modern links-style course. Two years ago, when the course was hit with wind and rain, it was the 5th most difficult course on tour. Two years ago, with more benign conditions, it was the 19th most difficult course on tour (out of 49). Last year, golfers were subjected to relatively benign conditions again and it was the 29th most difficult course on tour (out of the 43 courses that are ranked by DataGolf).
I haven’t seen any reports of work being done to the course since last year’s event but there is additional 45 yards on the scorecard this year, suggesting that changes have been made. The par-4 5th hole is now 9 yards longer and the par-4 11th has gained an additional 36 yards.
It is a 7,282-yard par 70. The course is equipped with an assortment of tee boxes so the distance can be flexible depending on the wind each day. By par, it is the 24th longest course on tour this season (out of the 48 courses I’ve done the calculations for).
There are five par 3s, ten par 4s, and three par 5s. The three par 5s range from 576 to 600 yards in length and are only reachable if the wind cooperates, but they are still the three best scoring opportunities on the course. The par 3s are a mix of short holes, approximately 150 yards in length, and long holes over 200 yards. Three out of the five par 3s played over par last year. The 5th hole is a drivable par 4 and is the fourth easiest hole on the courses, though it may be a little less drivable with the addiotnal yardage. The rest of the par 4s range from 418 to 505 yards in length, but most of them fall between 450 and 500 yards. The 418-yard 13th hole was the fifth easiest hole on the course last year (a total of seven holes played under par in 2024). The par-4 18th hole was the most difficult hole on the course last year, making MacIntyre’s win even more impressive.
It is not the official scorecard, but here is what we are working with at The Renaissance:
Off the tee, golfers will see undulating fairways of varying widths. Some fairways are ribbon-thin, demanding accuracy or a layup to a less formidable location. Others are wide and generous, but demand golfers put their ball on the proper portion of the fairway for the best angle to the green. The landing zones are protected by deep bunkers, pot bunkers, mounds, and thick fescue rough. Gorse is also found throughout the property. The fairways are fescue as well. In fact, the course is wall-to-wall fescue. Although most of the old pine forest was removed and most of what is left is concentrated to a few areas that shouldn’t come into play, there were a few trees strategically left behind to complicate approach shots if golfers do not leave themselves the proper angle. The rock walls should only come into play on the most wayward drives or if golfers do not properly control their distance on approach. Water is only in play on one hole. The 13th hole features a narrow fairway wedged in between a giant dune and a seaside bluff, so golfers must really get crossed up to put their ball in the drink. There are a couple of doglegs that will challenge golfers mentally, asking them to take on the risk of cutting the corner or laying up to a safer section of the fairway. There is a difference of 24 m between the highest and lowest points on the course, and golfers will traverse a total of 87 m during their rounds. Doak strategically used the elevation changes found on the course to create uphill and downhill holes, forced carries and blind fairways and approach shots.
On approach, golfers will see large, sloped greens that are protected by thick rough, bunkers, and steep runoffs. The putting surface is fescue. Although most of the course will play firm and fast, the greens will run slow to keep balls from rolling in the strong coastal winds. In classic links fashion, the green fronts are open. A few greens don’t have any bunkering at all and rely on the various forms of undulation for protection. Indeed, the greens make use of all sorts of structural features, including knobs, ridges, tiers, folds, pockets, and thumbprints, just to name a few. Many of the greens also runoff in every direction.
We only have a few years of data to help characterize the course, but those three years demonstrate how challenging the course can be regardless of the weather. Even with improved conditions last year, Driving Accuracy was still just 52.1% (42nd of 44 courses; average was 62.7%). Despite the difficulty in hitting fairways, golfers have not been deterred from playing aggressively off the tee. Likely aided by lots of rollout, the average Driving Distance was 293.7 yards (10th of 35; average was 286.3 yards). Even though the greens are large and conditions have improved the last couple of years, Greens in Regulation was still below average (65.8%; 27th of 47 courses, average is 66.7%). Missed greens can be a problem, Scrambling Percentage was just 55.9% (35th of 44 courses, average was 58.8%).
According to DataGolf, Renaissance has had the fourth hardest fairways to hit over the last five years. There isn’t much penalty for missing the fairways if you keep it in the rough. The Renaissance had the fifth smallest penalty for missing the fairways, but the second highest penalty for putting your ball somewhere other than the fairway or the rough (have to keep it out of the fairway bunkers). And with no real hazards on the course, the Renaissance had had the fourth lowest amount of penalty strokes when golfers missed the fairway, second fewest amount of penalty strokes overall, and fifth fewest reloads.
The short game statistics show an interesting dichotomy of the course. We know that the Scrambling Percentage is below the tour average. According to DataGolf, however, it is the easiest in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, whether golfers are chipping from the fairway or the rough. This doesn’t make sense until you look at the putting statistics. It is the fourth most difficult in putting overall, the most difficult when putting inside five feet, and the fifth most difficult from five to fifteen feet. I take this to mean that golfers have no problem with the first part of scrambling, chipping the ball close to the hole, but struggle with the second part, making the putt to convert an up-and-down.
The weather
We have seen in the Scottish Open’s brief history at the Renaissance that weather can have a dramatic effect on how the course plays. Lots of wind and cold led to a winning score of -7, but in favorable conditions a winning score reached -22.
As of now, the winds on Thursday are forecasted to be 10-15 mph with slightly stronger gusts, but they should be under 5 mph the rest of the time. There is no rain in the forecast prior to or during the tournament. Temperatures will top out in the low 70s with mostly sunny skies.
DFS Strategy
If we look at the metrics that we normally use to determine how much bankroll we should use, I think we’re clear to go ahead with our usual bankrolls this week.
In its relatively brief history, The Renaissance has had very few penalty strokes and reloads compared to other courses on tour. It’s not a very volatile course; golfers very rarely play themselves out of the tournament with one bad hole.
The chalk usually performs well in Scotland as well, though it can be a mixed bag. The last two winners of the tournament were the chalk of their range. There we also four chalk golfers that scored over 100 points last year, and three more that were close to being considered chalk.
There have been some notable names that missed the cut while being the chalk of their range, but that seems to happen at every tournament. There is also a phenomenon at the Scottish Open (and The Open) where DP World Tour golfers get a lot of steam, end up being chalk, and subsequently miss the cut (Tom McKibbin and Ewen Ferguson were chalk last year). This is probably just a case of the touts being too smart by half, resulting in golfers getting more ownership than they deserve.
There is nothing we can do about quality plays missing the cut, that’s just the frustrating variance that is part of this game. But we can be suspicious of unknown DP World Tour golfers getting a lot of ownership. So, as long as we avoid that obvious pitfall, I think we can conclude that the chalk performs well at The Renaissance.
Cumulative ownerships for winning lineups over the past few years have usually been between 60% and 80%. There have been a couple instances of winning lineups with cumulative ownerships under 60%, but they’ve happened so rarely that I don’t think we need to go far out on the risk curve to be successful (if you’re bold and want to be a little contrarian, it has worked at this event in the past).
I don’t see any issues with paying your usual bankroll based on these criteria, but there are a couple of reasons you may want to hold back. First, half the field will be DP World Tour players. There are so many resources out there these days that I don’t think this is much of an issue anymore but if you’re not comfortable with being unfamiliar with half the field, I wouldn’t judge you. The second reason is that a portion of the event will be played while most of us are sleeping. This obviously takes away some of the enjoyment factor, which should be the primary reason you’re playing DFS. If not being able to sweat every second of the action is important to you, you may want to reconsider playing this week.
The Genesis Scottish Open, while not a signature event, is more than one of the run-of-the-mill midsummer events. The strong field attracts more attention and, with that, bigger DFS contests. DraftKings will run its full slate of contests; double-ups, 50/50s, single-entry contests, GPPs, the Fantasy Golf World Championships qualifiers, and Millionaire Maker qualifiers, but the GPPs will be bigger. If they are too big for your liking, you can always play in the secondary or tertiary contests. Check the lobby early in the week so you can come up with a new plan if necessary.
Once you have decided which contests you will be playing in, we need to decide how much leverage we want and how we’re going to get that leverage.
As I mentioned above, cumulative ownerships of winning lineups are usually between 60% and 80% with a few instances of them being under 60%. I think we should aim for 70% in our GPPs (you can go a little higher in your cash games). We should be trying to get some extra leverage this week, we don’t have to go below that 60% mark, but we should also avoid going much over 80%. We’ll need to roster a couple of golfers under 10% at least and probably want to give some sub-5% golfers a look this week.
As always, we have the same two places we turn to for leverage every week. The first is the ownership projections, where we will try to identify the chalk and then look for good pivots off the chalk. We can then look at the pricing; identify golfers that are priced too low and consider fading them because they will likely be over-owned and identify the golfers that are priced too high and give them consideration because the DFS community will try to avoid them.
The makeup of the field this week also gives us an opportunity to find some leverage. The golfers coming over from the PGA Tour will be more talented, but they will also get the most interest from DFS players. The golfers from the DP World Tour will likely be overlooked, even though they have more experience with the style of play needed for the course. With a lack of data for the DP World Tour golfers, it may take a little more digging to find good plays among their ranks, but you should be rewarded with some leverage if you do. Undoubtedly, a few DP World Tour golfers will catch the eye of some touts and pickup extra ownership, so just be sure to check the buzz around any DP golfers you decide to roster and confirm that you will actually be getting some leverage.
Most weeks I try to find an angle regarding the type of golfers that DFS players will be targeting and the direction we can take to find some leverage. The Scottish Open is still fairly new to most DFS players though, but I have in my notes that the course favors bombers. Assuming other DFS players were seeing the same things I saw; we can look towards either the ballstrikers or plodders for leverage. Pay attention to the touts though, they may change their tune, and we may want to target a different style of play for leverage.
I am quite sure that most DFS players will be going with stars-and-scrubs lineups though; most DFS players cannot help themselves and are always attracted to the top of the field. We can get leverage by building balanced lineups. It takes some fortitude to fade the top of the field, but if they stumble at all, you will be in a good spot. You can also try building super stars-and-scrubs lineups. Forcing two stars into your lineups will make them somewhat unique on its own, but it requires you to roster two inexpensive golfers who are more likely to be low owned.
Once you’ve decided which contests you want to play and how you’re going to get leverage, you can start thinking about roster construction. So, turning to the Roster Construction Matrix, we have a strong field at a course with mixed difficulty (difficult when the winds are strong and closer to average when they are down). Regardless of how the course ultimately plays, a strong field lends itself towards stars-and-scrubs builds. If the weather looks like it will be more benign, the course will play easier, and balanced builds come into play. The stars-and-scrubs builds have been coming through at the strong field events this season, so that is where I will start this week.
My plan this week is to stick to my usual bankroll and focus on cash games, specifically 50/50s and single-entry contests. While contest sizes should be bigger this week, they won’t be as big as the upcoming major or have the big prizes I chase. I’ll probably be overweight with stars-and-scrubs lineups and possibly mix in a super stars-and-scrubs or balanced lineup. I’ll be a little judicious with how much chalk I play but I won’t avoid the plays I really like. I’ll also look to get a couple of sub-5% golfers in my pool. I will also be sure to keep my cumulative ownerships around 70%.
Now that we have a plan for the week, we can focus on the type of golfers we will target.
True links golf is a style we usually only see at The Open Championship. The course setup can change day-to-day depending on the weather, particularly the wind, and the wind conditions can change hour-to-hour or even hole-to-hole. Instead of a particular type of golfer, the most successful golfers will be those that are able to adapt strategies and tactics to ever-changing conditions. I want to target strong all-around golfers and then look to identify golfers in good form that play well on links courses. The Renaissance is also on the long side, so I will give preference to the longer hitters and golfers that are good with their mid and long irons.
As usual, I will start my process by building my course fit model and putting together a Recent Form and Course History spreadsheet. I will use my model to target golfers that are good ballstrikers with a preference towards distance, accurate with their long irons, and putt well on slow greens. I will also look for golfers that play well in tough conditions and have performed well at the Open Championship.
Prior success at The Renaissance should be a good indicator if golfers are suited to this style of play. With the dearth of Course History data, however, I am not sure if looking at the data will give me a good idea if golfers have the requisite skills to perform well at The Renaissance. To supplement the shortage in Course History data, I will also look at data from links courses as a proxy. The only links courses that most PGA Tour golfers will have seen are from The Open Championship. Again, it’s probably not a huge sample size, but I should be able to identify golfers that perform well on links-style courses by looking at results at The Renaissance and The Open Championship.
Here are the course fit statistics that I will use (last 100 rounds):
Off-the-tee:
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee: A staple in my model week after week; I will use other off-the-tee statistics to fit the model to individual courses. The fairways may be among the hardest to hit on tour, but there isn’t much penalty for missing the fairways, so I don’t think we need to emphasize accuracy. Instead, I will just be looking for good drivers of the ball.
Driving Distance: With three par 5s and a drivable par 4, a little extra fire power will help golfers take advantage of these scoring opportunities. A little extra distance will also be helpful when golfers do miss the fairway since they will have a shorter iron into the greens.
Approach:
Strokes Gained: Approach: With some wide fairways and large greens, you might think it would be easy to hit greens in regulation, but you would be wrong. Since hitting greens can be difficult, I will put a little more emphasis on these statistics. I will look at this statistic on courses 7,200 to 7,400 yards.
Proximity 175+: With three par 5s, a few long par 4s, and a couple long par 3s, golfers are going to have a lot of long irons in their hands on approach.
Putting
Strokes Gained: Putting on Slow Greens: I usually specify a surface type for putting statistics, but fescue isn’t one of the options on Fantasy National and we don’t get Strokes Gained: Putting statistics from past Open Championships (though we do have Scottish Open putting data by distance to work with), so I will just stick with slow greens. Most PGA Tour golfers aren’t accustomed to putting on the slow greens of links courses. I want to make sure to roster golfers that have shown an ability to put on greens that could reach single digits on the stimp.
Three-putt Avoidance: With large greens, and potentially windy conditions, golfers will be staring down some long putts this week. Good lag putting will be crucial for staying in contention.
Scoring:
Par 5 Scoring 550-600 yards: The par 5s are three of the seven holes that played under par last year (the others were the short par 4s and two of the par 3s). Golfers will need to take advantage of them.
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards: Five of the holes on the course fall into this range, and two more are just outside of it. Golfers will have to hold their own on these holes if they expect to contend.
Bogey Avoidance: Under the best conditions, golfers can go low at the Renaissance, but I will start by assuming conditions will not be as good as they currently appear to be and the course will be difficult. When scoring is tough, I want to roster golfers that don’t give anything back. I will look at this statistic on difficult courses.
After building my model, I usually have a few other statistics that I will look at to help make my determinations. This week, I will look at Open Championship History, Birdies or Better Gained, and Stokes Gained: Total at Difficult Courses. If the winds pick up, I will also make sure to look at Strokes Gained: Total in the Wind.
I mentioned above that I would be looking at results from previous Open Championships to identify golfers that have the skills necessary to play well on links courses, like the ability to keep their ball flight down to cut through the wind and using the ground game effectively.
It may seem odd to include Birdies or Better at a tournament where a recent winner was only seven under par, but golfers have also come close to twenty under par recently as well. Golfers may need to make some birdies to get ahead. If it looks like conditions will be prime for scoring, I may also swap this into my model for Bogey Avoidance. I will look at this statistic on difficult courses.
As of now it looks like the winds could be down for most of the tournament, so the course may not have as much bite as it can, but if the forecast changes and the winds look like they will be up for the tournament, I want to roster golfers that are up for a difficult challenge.
I will also build a model that includes statistics that are only available using The Rabbit Hole on Betsperts.com. For the Scottish Open, I am interested in SG: Off-the-Tee at Driver Heavy courses with Low Missed Fairway Penalty, Driving Distance, Stokes Gained: Approach on course with Difficult Strokes Gained: Approach, Proximity 175+, Strokes Gained: Around the Green at Fescue Courses, Strokes Gained: Putting on Fescue, SG: Total on Links/Hybrid Links courses, Strokes Gained: Total at UK/Ireland Courses, and Par 5 Birdie or Better %.
In short, I am looking for golfers that are strong off the tee with an emphasis on distance, good with their mid and long irons, and putt well on slow greens. I’ll also look for golfers that can take advantage of the conditions given to them by the weather; golfers that can hang tough in difficult conditions or golfers that can go low in benign conditions. The statistics that I will focus on to start my player pool are Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Driving Distance, Strokes Gained: Approach, Proximity 175+ yards, and Strokes Gained: Putting. I will also focus on the analogues from my Rabbit Hole model.
Before I wrap this up, I want to remind you one more time that DFS lock for the Scottish Open should be right around midnight in the Central time zone. We can come up with the perfect strategy, but it’s all for naught if we don’t remember to set our lineups.
That’s all I have for now, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@glzisk) for any updates.
Have a great week!