Remember, when we think about getting leverage, we’re trying to identify what other DFS players are going to do and use that information to our advantage. In general, we’re going to get highly-owned golfers into our cash games and lower-owned golfers into our GPPs. The names getting into our GPPs might make you squeamish, but differentiating yourself from the hoards is how to win these contests.
The plays/fades are for getting leverage in GPPs and do not necessarily reflect my opinion on a golfer, and may actually run contrary to my opinion.
I’m using DraftKings pricing.
It’s looking like with such a weak field, most PGA DFs players are going to stick to the rivers and lakes that they’re used and play the most expensive golfers and hope they connect on some lower-priced golfers. If you don’t feel like trying to piece together that puzzle, building balanced lineups should get you the leverage we’re looking for.
10k+:
Contrary to my original assessment of this price range (see this Sunday’s edition of The Fringe), it appears DFSers aren’t going to be deterred by seeing some names they don’t usually see at the top of the pricing list. Four of the five golfers in this range look like they are going to be rostered enough to be considered chalky. The lone golfer in this range that won’t be chalk is Sergio Garcia. Sergio’s ownership won’t be low enough to considered a true leverage play, but he’ll be the only golfer under 10% and will get you some leverage anyways.
Play: I wrote that it was an error to not play Hideki Matsuyama at the Fortinet when he was the lowest-owned golfer in the 10k+ range, and I won’t be making the same mistake again, so Sergio Garcia is my play. He ranks high in my model and I’m not worried about a letdown from the Ryder Cup; I’m a lot more worried about his putting.
Fade: This one borders on the fearsome fade zone because I like everybody in this range, but I’ll be building about 25 lineups and won’t be able to roster everybody. I don’t feel great about it, but Will Zalatoris is going to be my fade this week. Sanderson Farms was one of the few blemishes on his record last year, and even if he makes the cut, I don’t know if his putter is good enough to pay off his salary.
9k:
Mito Pereira and Charley Hoffman are not only the chalk of this range, but at over 20% projected ownership, it looks like they’ll be the chalk of the slate. Keegan Bradley and Harold Varner III look like they’ll be cash-game viable. Sebastian Munoz and Cameron Tringale are right on the GPP/cash game cusp, and I don’t mind if you use them in either, but you’ll probably need to find leverage elsewhere if you use them in GPPs. Si Woo Kim and Cam Davis are the GPP plays in this range, though neither of them will get you a ton of leverage and you may want to try to get leverage in other spots if you do roster them.
Play: Cam Davis is my favorite GPP play in this range; he struggles a little bit on Bermuda, but his statistics do improve on Champion Ultra Dwarf Bermuda.
Fade: Harold Varner III; he was one of the lowest ranked golfers in this range, according to my model, and always seems to disappoint whenever he gets any kind of ownership.
8k:
I’m seeing pretty big discrepancies across various projections for this range, so I am going to use the Fantasy National projections for this discussion (I’m going to run an analysis once actual ownerships come out to see who got this range right). Seamus Power and Aaron Wise are going to be the chalk from this range. Kevin Streelman, Carlos Ortiz, Patton Kizzire, and possibly Matthew Wolff will be cash-game viable. Emiliano Grillo, Gary Woodland, C.T. Pan, and Doug Ghim are the GPP plays, and Mattias Schwab is your leverage play.
Play: Finding a GPP play in this range feels a bit like dumpster diving. I’m not really in love with any of the plays, but I am going to hold my nose and roster C.T. Pan. He’s never been very consistent, but he ranks 39th in my model and usually puts together a decent Fall swing
Fade: I like the chalk in this range, if they don’t make it to my cash lineup, they’ll get into my GPP pool; so, I feel liking I’m copping out with a fade here, but it’s going to be Patton Kizzire. He wasn’t really on my radar at all, so if he’s going to be highly owned, I can take a pass. I’ll also throw in Matthew Wolff, another golfer that’s not on my radar and I’m not quite sure where all the ownership is coming from.
7k:
Not a lot of love for the 7k range. Nobody in this range should hit the level of chalk, and only five golfers will be cash game viable: Joseph Bramlett, Taylor Pendrith, Scott Stallings, Patrick Rodgers, and Matt Wallace. There shouldn’t be too many GPP plays in the 5-10% ownership range either: Joseph Bramlett, Keith Mitchell, Chez Reavie, Luke List, Chris Kirk, Zach Johnson, Henrik Norlander, and Adam Svenson. I hear a few touts talking up Chad Ramey, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he got close to 10% too. That leaves a ton of options to try to get leverage in this range.
Play: My favorite leverage play in this range is Bronson Burgoon, he was #2 in my model and could come in at 1% ownership.
Fade: In general, I want to see what the new Korn Ferry Tour graduates can do, so I will be fading Taylor Pendrith. He’s been playing well recently, even in some PGA starts, but he struggles in some statistics I’m looking at and hasn’t played the course in a competition yet.
6k:
There is even less love for the 6k range. Nobody will hit the level of chalk, and only one golfer hits cash-game viability. Adam Schenk. Only a handful of golfers will even end up in the 5-10% GPP range: Rory Sabbatini, Nick Hardy, John Augenstein, Denny McCarthy, and J.T. Poston. I heard a lot of chatter about Denny McCarthy, so he might hit the cash-game viable range. So, swing away, you’ll get plenty of leverage rostering almost anybody in this range.
Play: This is a bit of a FOMO play because he didn’t perform well in my model, but I heard a couple of touts were on him, so I am going to give Anirban Lahiri a little run.
Fade: If Adam Schenk doesn’t get into my cash lineup, I will be fading him in my GPPs. He doesn’t rate well in my model and would strictly be an ownership play. I’ll also be fading Denny McCarthy (one of my new year’s resolutions was to play less Denny).