The Fringe
PGA DFS Preview: FedEx St. Jude Championship and TPC Southwind
I have to apologize once again, I’ve been playing catch-up all week after doing some travelling over the weekend, so it’s another abbreviated edition of The Fringe. I’ve got the all-important PGA DFS preview though, so don’t go anywhere just yet.
There was one bit of news that I wanted to share with you if you haven’t seen it yet; Golfweek got there hands on a copy of the upcoming 2024 PGA Tour schedule. There are significant changes coming to the tour next year, the biggest for DFS players is the implementation of small fields with no cuts (and a few small fields with a cut). This will significantly alter how we approach these events, so it’s important to familiarize yourself with schedule and start formulating your plans for next year.
I also want to temper expectations for next Sunday. The BMW Championship is being played a Olympia Fields Country Club, a course we haven’t seen since 2020 and a course that I have no notes on. I am going to have to spend extra time getting the PGA DFS preview right, so it’s probably going to mean another abbreviated edition of The Fringe.
The Future
The PGA Tour is off to Memphis, Tennessee for the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind, the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs.
The FedEx Cup was established in 2007. There have been some changes to the format throughout its history, but it has always involved golfers accumulating FedEx Cup points throughout the regular season to earn a spot in the playoffs, and a series of tournaments to determine the FedEx Cup Champion. The latest iteration came about in 2019 when the series of tournaments was cut from four to three, and the FedEx Cup Starting Strokes were established for the Tour Championship.
Just the top 70 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings qualify for the opening playoff event and there will be no cut, whereas 125 qualified last year and there was a cut. At the end of the FedEx St. Jude, the top 50 move onto the BMW Championship, and the top 30 after the BMW move onto the Tour Championship.
The PGA Tour has a complicated history with the sponsor of this tournament (FedEx is the tournament sponsor, and St. Jude Children's Research Hospital is the charity). FedEx first became the title sponsor of the St. Jude Classic, a long-running regular tour event, in 1986 (it was known as Federal Express back then). The relationship lasted until 2007. FedEx came back as the title sponsor in 2011. In 2019, the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational was moved to TPC Southwind, the home of the St. Jude Classic, ending the tournament as we knew it. FedEx became the sponsor of the WGC, and St. Jude remained the charity. The WGC Invitational was discontinued for the 2021-22 season, and the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs was moved to TPC Southwind. The name was also changed from the Northern Trust to the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
TL; DR: The FedEx St. Jude Classic became the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, which became the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
The Northern Trust had a long history before joining the FedEx Cup playoffs. It was originally established as the Westchester Classic in 1967 and was a regular tour stop until 2007 when it became the first tournament in the FedEx Cup playoffs. It was also at this time that the tournament left its long-time home at Westchester Country Club and started moving around the New York metropolitan area, eventually alternating between Liberty National and TPC Boston.
Since the tournament’s nomadic stage began in 2007, scoring for the first leg of the playoffs has always been dependent on the host course and its condition. In 2020, Dustin Johnson tore TPC Boston to pieces, reaching -30. At other venues (Bethpage Black, Ridgewood, and Liberty National), the winning score has failed to reach ten strokes under par.
Last year, Will Zalatoris and Sepp Straka were tied at -15 after 72 holes (cutline was -2; median score for cutmakers was -6). They both made par on the first two holes of the playoff before moving to the 11th hole, a par 3 with an island green. Sepp Straka put his tee shot in the water, while Zalatoris’ ball teetered on the wall separating the green from the water before he elected to take a drop. Zalatoris was able to get up-and-down from the drop zone, while Straka put his approach in a bunker and couldn’t hole out, giving Willy Z the victory.
Here are the last 10 winners and their scores (from events held at TPC Southwind):
Even though the field consisted of the top 125 golfers in the FedEx Cup rankings last year, the strength of the field was only 390, weaker than the majors and the other marquee events (17th strongest of 47; average was 350). I’d guess that’s because the field is slightly smaller than most events and some highly ranked golfers in the OWGR play on other tours and are excluded from the playoffs.
I’m not sure how the smaller field and the new OWGR system will impact the strength of field this year, but I would think it remains in a similar spot relative to the other tournaments; above average, but not as strong as the majors or other designated events.
The field is set for 70 golfers. All the golfers that are currently qualified have committed, but the final standings are not determined until after the Wyndham Championship. There are no alternates.
Course Description
TPC Southwind was designed by Ron Prichard with help from Hubert Green and Fuzzy Zoeller. It opened in 1988 and began hosting the St. Jude Classic the following year.
The course was first renovated in 2004 to modernize and strengthen the course. The greens were changed from bentgrass to Bermudagrass, new tees were added, new bunkers were installed, three ponds were enlarged, four creeks were stabilized, and over 125 trees were planted. The fifth hole was also adjusted from a par 5 to a par 4.
It was renovated again in 2020. The renovation consisted of lengthening the course a little bit and updating the bunkers.
TPC Southwind is now a 7,243-yard, par -70, technical design. Last year, it was the 30th most difficult course on tour (out of 50). There are four par 3s, twelve par 4s, and two par 5s. The par 5s can be reached in two by most golfers and are the best scoring opportunities on the course. All the par-4 holes are approximately 400 yards or longer, and although three of them play under, none of them are easy scoring opportunities. All the par 3s are under 200 yards (one with a pesky island green), and only the 171-yard 8th hole plays under par. DataGolf indicates that it is the fourth shortest set of par 3s on tour. With water coming into play on 11 holes, it sees some of the most water balls on tour annually, though I have to think TPC Twin Cities gives it a run for its money in that respect.
Here is the official 2023 scorecard:
Off the tee, golfers will see narrow, tree-lined fairways (28 yards wide at 300 yards). The rough is Bermudagrass and will be kept at 2.5 inches in length. The Bermudagrass can promote flier lies, so even though it is short, golfers will do their best to avoid it. The fairways are Zeon zoysiagrass, a unique surface on tour. The only other courses that golfers have seen with zoysiagrass fairways are East Lake, Atlanta Athletic Club, Bellerive Country Club, Trinity Forest Golf Club and TPC Craig Ranch. Golfers will have to contend with bunkers, trees, and the aforementioned water if they are inaccurate from the tee box. The course is relatively flat with only a 14 m difference between the highest and lowest points on the course.
On approach, golfers will be hitting into small, Champion Bermudagrass greens (4,300 sq. ft.). They are fast, usually average in firmness, but can get firm, and have a lot of undulation. They are also protected by bunkers and water.
I wouldn’t let the TPC Southwind being ranked the 30th most difficult course last year fool you, it is consistently one of the more challenging courses each year. The narrow fairways are difficult to hit; last year Driving Accuracy was 56.4% (36th of 48 courses). Since golfers are playing from the Bermudagrass rough into small greens almost 45% of the time, hitting the greens in regulation is also difficult (Greens in Regulation was 59.2%; 45th of 48 courses). Even with difficulty hitting fairways and greens, Driving Distance is near the middle of the pack at 286 yards (14th of 34 courses). I take this to mean that golfers are playing strategically off the tee; playing aggressively and going with driver when the course allows, but also clubbing down when necessary. I also think you get some bombers taking their chances with a wedge from the rough. Scrambling percentages was 59.4 % (19th of 47 courses), so a missed green isn’t an automatic penalty, but golfers can’t get careless.
In terms of weather, TPC Southwind has always been a grind. As the St. Jude Classic, it was traditionally played the week before the U.S. Open. As a WGC event, it was played in late July. What do these have in common? Tennessee in the summertime. This means a lot of heat and humidity and pop-up storms. As of now, the forecast is calling for highs hitting the 90s and a good dose of humidity. Winds are currently all over the place; the weekend looks light, while Thursday and Friday could see gusts up to 30 mph. There is a chance of storms every day until next Sunday, so we’ll need to pay attention to how the course is playing when golfers start getting in their practice rounds.
DFS Strategy
TPC Southland is a technically demanding courses that will stress every part of the game from tee to green. Golfers must position themselves in the fairway from the tee box if they want any chance of hitting the green in regulation. The test isn’t over once they’re in the fairway, however. Playing into small greens that tend to run firm and fast, they must also be precise to keep their approach shot on the putting surface. Once safely on, they will likely be looking at a speedy putt with some swing to it. Golfers will also need to exhibit some patience; bide their time and collect their pars until a chance to be aggressive presents itself.
As usual, I will start my process by building my course fit model and putting together Recent Form and Course History spreadsheets. I will use my model to target golfers that are that are accurate off the tee or can hit the green from the Bermudagrass rough, are strong with their mid-irons, keep it clean around the greens, and are comfortable putting on fast, Bermudagrass greens.
I don’t write about Recent Form enough, but I think it’s safe to assume that I’m using my spreadsheet to identify golfers that are in good form. Form isn’t always a prerequisite for getting into my player pool, but I prefer to roster golfers in decent form at the very least. At tougher courses like TPC Southwind, I do rely on Recent Form a little more heavily; I don’t want to roster golfers that are trying to find their game at a challenging course.
I will give Course history some consideration this week. As a technical challenge, a little experience will help golfers play the right clubs off the tee and put themselves in the best position. It should also help understand the intricacies of the greens. Course history isn’t necessary, however, Daniel Berger won at this course the first two times he played it. Just be careful to make sure you are looking at the correct results.
Here are the course fit statistics I will use (last 100 rounds):
Off-the-tee:
Good Drives Gained: I would prefer to have my golfers hitting fairways, but that is big ask at TPC Southwind. Since golfers are likely to miss a few fairways, I want to roster golfers that are also adept at hitting the green from the rough. I will look at this statistic at courses 7,200-7,400 yards in length (I will add par 70 as a condition is sample sizes are large enough).
Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach: A staple in my model week after week. Keeping the ball on small, firm greens is going to be tough; golfers will have to be sharp with their approach game. I will look at this statistic at courses 7,200-7,400 yards in length (I will add par 70 as a condition is sample sizes are large enough).
Opportunities Gained: The tournament is unlikely to turn into a birdie fest, but the winning score will probably reach the mid-teens under par. Golfers will need to find ways to make enough birdies to contend. The best way to do that is to consistently give themselves makeable putts for birdie. I will look at this statistic at courses 7,200-7,400 yards in length (I will add par 70 as a condition is sample sizes are large enough).
Proximity 150-200 yards: Almost 50% of approach shots will come from this range; golfers will have to be good with their mid-irons to get the looks they need to compete.
Around-the-green:
Scrambling: Scrambling at TPC Southwind isn’t particularly difficult, but golfers will need to rely on their short game frequently given the low percentage of greens hit in regulation. I want to roster golfers that won’t give anything back when they miss the green. I will look at this statistic on fast Bermudagrass greens.
Putting:
Strokes Gained: Putting: Putting is another staple in my model, I will switch up the surface as needed. This week, I will be looking for fast Bermudagrass specialists. If you want to be exact, you can look at putting on Champion Bermuda; here are a few other courses featuring this grass type: Quail Hollow (since 2017), Country Club of Jackson, and Sedgefield Country Club.
Scoring
Par 4 Efficiency 450-500 yards: Six of the par 4s fall into this range, and two others are just outside of it. I want to roster golfers with a track record of success on these holes.
Bogey Avoidance: There aren’t going to be too many scoring opportunities, so golfers can’t give too many strokes back to the field and expect to get them back later.
After building my model, I usually have a few other statistics that I will look at during the Sniff Test to help make my determinations. This week, I will look at Fairways Gained, Par 5 Scoring, Double Bogey Avoidance, Strokes Gained: Total at difficult courses, and preferred shot shape.
When I work through the Sniff Test, I bring up a window with just these “other statistics” displayed so I can quickly reference them. I am including Fairways Gained, even though I have Good Drives Gained in my model, just to serve as a reminder about how accurate a golfer is when I go through their “other statistics”.
Even though there are only two par 5s on the course, golfers will need to score on them to stay relevant. I want to confirm that any golfer I roster can take care of business.
With water in play on 11 holes, double bogey can become a real possibility quickly. I want to avoid golfers that make mistakes that lead to double-squared numbers on the scorecard.
Even though the ranking from last season suggests that TPC Southwind is only a medium difficulty course, the course is typically regarded as one of the more challenging courses on tour. Some golfers just seem to step up their game when they play difficult courses, I want those golfers in my player pool.
I have in my notes from last year that TPC Southwind demands that right-handed golfers hit a fade. I don’t have much information on golfers’ preferred shot shapes, but I will be on the lookout for golfers that prefer to hit a fade.
Turning to the Roster Construction Matrix, if we take everything at face value and assume we are working with a medium strength of field and a medium difficulty course, the matrix points to either a stars-and-scrubs build or balanced build. If the course is difficult or the field is strong, the Matrix points towards a stars-and-scrubs build. Stars-and-scrubs lineups have been winning most of the contests that I study each week, so I’m tempted to go that way. Also, because the field consists of the top 70 golfers in FedEx Cup rankings, the golfers in the 6k range will be more palatable than usual, making stars-and-scrubs builds even more enticing.
As always, we should be looking for ways to get leverage on our opponents. The first place we look each week is the ownership projections, where we will try to identify the chalk, and then look for good pivots off the chalk. The next place we should look is in the pricing; identify golfers that are mispriced too low and consider fading them because they will likely be over-owned and identify the golfers that are priced too high and give them consideration because the DFS community will try to avoid them.
There is one problem with our initial approach to finding leverage though, the field is small and talented. Ownerships are probably going to be more evenly distributed, meaning it will be more difficult to find pivots, and there are fewer combinations of golfers, meaning it’s easier to be duplicated. I think instead of relying on low-owned golfers to make our lineups unique, we will also have to focus on the structure of our lineups.
Going back to the Roster Construction Matrix, I think most DFS players are going to be tempted by the big names in the field and will go with the stars-and-scrubs build. We should, therefore, be able to get leverage by building balanced lineups. It’s always a risk to fade golfers like Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, but if you have the fortitude to omit them from your player pool, you should come up with unique combinations. There should be some attractive names in the 9k and 8k range, so this build shouldn’t be too scary otherwise.
The other thing we can do structurally is leave some salary on the table when we build our lineups. Most DFS players try to spend every dollar they can when building lineups, so if you avoid doing that, you should build unique combinations. You don’t have to leave crazy amounts on the table, $500 to $1000 should be plenty.
Finally, I will be going light on the bankroll this week. I just don’t think I have much edge in small-field, no-cut events. Maybe someday I’ll figure them out, but I’ll keep my bankroll safe for now. I am also going to focus on Tiers contests. I’ve been having moderate success without putting much thought into them, I am hoping that by focusing on them in the playoffs, I can learn a little more about them and make them a bigger part of my play each week. I’m not sure how many contests that I will find appealing, so I don’t know exactly how much bankroll I will use, but I know it won’t be a lot.
That’s all I have for now, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@glzisk) for any updates.
Have a great week!