Twitter profiles can serve a wide variety of functions. Most folks use them as a way to introduce themselves to the world. Others like to use them to show how witty they are, or how virtuous. Some use them to connect you to their content.
I also like to use mine as a reminder to myself and a promise to my followers (and provide a link to The Fringe, of course). Let’s break it down really quick.
There are four components:
1. Family Man
2. Mario Kart Enthusiast
3. PGA DFS dreamer
4. #TeamClassicState
The first three are self-explanatory and serve to let the world know what I’m all about. The final one, #TeamClassicSlate, is a reminder to myself to stay focused and a promise to my followers that the classic slate will be my sole focus.
DraftKings and Fanduel offer up all sorts of opportunities to play PGA on their sites; single rounds, tiers, betting, and so on. There are also other sites that offer even more ways to wager on the PGA (is Monkey Knife Fight still a thing?). I don’t actually know what they all are because I’ve been focused on the Thursday through Sunday classic slate for so long.
The other games are tempting, but I don’t have the time or expertise to exploit them and, if I tried, I’d probably end up losing. I also couldn’t offer useful advice or even discuss them intelligently.
I could probably fake it though. I saw a lot of PGA DFS touts start offering their picks on bets when gambling was legalized. I see a lot of touts start doing football content when the NFL gets going. I’ve seen the same touts schilling baseball cards, crypto currencies and NFTs. I don’t get how their fans or customers could trust them on any of it. A single fantasy sport is tough enough, how can these people be experts on all these other topics?
I’ve got other interests too, but if you ever see me offering advice on anything other than the PGA classic slate, and I’m not already rich off my DFS winnings and playing full-time, I hope you’ll call me out for being the phony I’d be.
I think the best way to approach this game is to narrow your focus until you find success and then start broadening your areas of expertise. For me that’s playing cash games and GPPs for the Thursday through Sunday slate on Fanduel and DraftKings. If you’re just starting out, I suggest trying a few different styles until you find what you like, and then just playing that game until you figure out how to be successful consistently. If you’re more experienced, but find yourself slumping, there’s no shame in pulling back a little until you find your way again.
The Past
It feels like it has been Ryder Cup week for two months, but the event finally got underway on Friday. Here is a couple of links to get you caught up with all the action: Day 1 and Day 2.
Among the stories coming from the lead up to the Ryder Cup, one of my favorites has to be Team Europe showing up to their practice round in green and gold uniforms and cheese heads. The move was slammed as pandering in some corners of the media. As a Wisconsinite myself, I can say, pandering or not, we loved it.
In earlier edition of The Fringe, I speculated that the Korn Ferry Tour would be off until January. My suspicion was confirmed a little while back when the PGA TOUR announced 2022 Korn Ferry Tour schedule.
The Present
The LPGA is in Rogers, Arkansas for the Walmart NW Arkansas Championship at the Pinnacle Country Club. Nasa Hataoka and Minjee Lee are tied for the lead at 12 under par. Golf Channel will have final round coverage from 12:00 to 3:00 pm ET.
The PGA TOUR Champions are on the Monterey Peninsula in California for PURE Insurance Championship played at Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Course. K.J. Choi (-9) takes a two-shot lead over Bernhard Langer and Alex Cejka into the final round. Golf Channel will have the coverage from 3:00 to 6:00 pm ET.
The PGA and PGA European Tours are off for the Ryder Cup. Team USA leads Team Europe 11 to 5 as they head into singles. NBC has the television coverage of the final round from 12:00 to 6:00 pm ET.
The Korn Ferry Tour is off until January.
The Future
After a false-start to the PGA season, we’re now getting into a run of eight tournaments that will go until Thanksgiving and close out the year of golf for us (unless you’re interested in the Hero World Challenge or QBE Shootout). It starts with the Sanderson Farms Championship from the Country Club of Jackson in Mississippi.
The Sanderson Farms Championship has been a part of the PGA Tour schedule since 1968, though it has gone by different names, including the Magnolia Classic, the Deposit Guaranty Golf Classic, the Southern Farm Bureau Classic, the Viking Classic, and, most recently, the True South Classic. Sanderson Farms took over sponsorship in 2013.
For most of its history, the tournament has been an alternate field event. The inaugural tournament was played opposite of the Colonial National Invitational. It was then played opposite of The Masters until 1993. After moving to the Fall in the mid-1990s, it has been played opposite of The Open Championship, the TOUR Championship, two Ryder Cups, a Presidents Cup, and WGCs. It was also during the mid-90s when the tournament moved from its long-time home at the Hattiesburg Country Club to Annandale Golf Club. It would reside at Annandale until 2014, when the tournament moved to its current home at the Country Club of Jackson.
In 2019, the tournament finally became its own stand-alone event and achieved the same status as the other regular PGA TOUR events; meaning winners now receive the full 500 FedExCup points, the two-year exemption, an invitation to The Masters, and all of the other goodies that come with winning a PGA event.
The Country Club of Jackson was founded in 1914, but the golf course didn’t come into existence until 1962, when three nine-hole courses were built by Dick Wilson. The three courses are known as Dogwood, Azalea and Cypress. Dogwood and Azalea combine to make the championship course for the Sanderson Farms. They were re-designed by John Fought in 2008.
The championship course is now a 7,461-yard par 72. It’s most commonly referred to as a resort-style course, but it’s also described as a parkland-style course in the tradition of Donald Ross. I’ve even seen it described as a stadium-style course. All three descriptions fit; the openness of the course gives it a resort-style feel, the elevated greens are typical of a Donald Ross parkland course, and the course is well-situated to accommodate viewers.
The course has the standard four par 3s, ten par 4s, and four par 5s. The par 5s are the best chance for golfers to make birdie, but they’re not necessarily easy. The par-5 fifth, is 612 yards and only gives up birdies about 25% of the time. The third and fourteenth will only be reachable by the longest hitters, and the shortest par 5, the 554-yard eleventh, has a pond protecting the green that make approach shots a little more daunting. There is a drivable par 4 that golfers can take advantage of, and a 411-yard par 4 that yields birdies over 20% of the time. The par 3s don’t offer much relief; two of them are over 200 yards and a third is 181 yards, and scoring on all three average just over par. The fourth par 3 is shorter and averages a hair under par.
Off of the tee, golfers will see fairways that are above average in width, but difficult to hit nonetheless. Missing the fairway doesn’t seem to be too much of an issue though; the rough is kept short to average in length and the trees aren’t dense enough to create issues. The biggest danger in missing the fairway is the occasional flyer lie from the Bermudagrass rough. There are bunkers in the landing zones, but they’re used more sparingly than other courses. There is a lot of water on the course in the form of swampland, ponds, and a creek running through the property, but water really only comes into play on five holes. Overall, the course is straight and flat. There are a few doglegs, but most holes are fairly straight. Over the entire course there is an elevation change of 20 m, but except for the par-4 ninth which plays uphill, the rest of the course is flat.
On approach, golfers will play into elevated Bermudagrass greens that are above average in size. They typically play fast with medium firmness. They are protected by bunkers, water, and closely-mown runoff areas.
Since moving to the Country Club of Jackson, the tournament is usually in the middle of the pack in terms of difficulty. Winning scores have ranged from -16 to -21, and the cutline fluctuated between Even and two under par. Here are the winners from the Country Club of Jackson:
2014: Nick Taylor -16
2015: Peter Malnati -18
2016: Cody Gribble -20
2017: Ryan Armour-19
2018: Cameron Champ -21
2019: Sebastian Munoz -18
2020: Sergio Garcia -19
The field is set for 144 golfers, with four open qualifiers yet to be determined. Last season, the tournament boasted its highest strength of field since moving to the Country Club of Jackson at 145. Usually, the strength of field hovers around the 20s, and it looks like the field will return to form this year. The field is headlined by returning champion Sergio Garcia, Sungjae Im, Will Zalatoris and Gary Woodland; and it thins out from there.
DFS Strategy
Like we saw a couple of weeks ago at Silverado, the Country Club of Jackson plays like a choose-your-own-adventure. The course doesn’t necessarily favor any particular type of golfer. A plodder like Ryan Armour and a bomber like Cameron Champ can both be successful here. This gives us a wide berth when trying to form our player pools.
In the end it didn’t hurt me too bad, but I don’t think I took the correct approach for the Fortinet Championship. You may recall that I targeted the plodders in my model. I think this narrowed my player pool a little too much and I missed on some important plays. I’ve got the fix though, and I’ll explain below in my course fit statistics.
As usual, my process will start by building my model using current form, course history, and course fit data.
For current form data, I will use the last five tournaments for golfers priced 8k and above, and the last three tournaments for golfers in the 7k and 6k range. Given the strength of field that the tournament usually gets, a large portion of the field is going to be inconsistent or inexperienced golfers; I’m of the opinion that going back five tournaments doesn’t truly represent the current form of these golfers and we need to cut it down to get a true representation.
Like I did for the Fortinet Championship, I will be a little underweight on course history in my model. The big names don’t frequent these early-season events and much of the field doesn’t have a lot of PGA experience, so there isn’t going a lot of course history data to work with. I will go through course history manually after running my model, and give preference to golfers with a strong track record at the Country Club of Jackson. This tournament has always been played in the Fall at this course, so I’m comfortable going back to 2014 for data. There are reports that the course was lengthened by 57 yards in 2018, but I don’t think that is a big enough change to influence my model.
Here are the course fit statistics that I will be using in my model (listed by importance):
Strokes Gained: Approach: A staple in my model week after week. Regardless of how you attack this course from the tee box (laying back and hitting fairways or bombing away with the driver), you have to be proficient with the irons and wedges to be successful. I will be looking at this statistic on par-72 courses that are over 7,400 yards.
Top 5 SG: Approach (par 72, over 7,400 yards, last 100 rounds): Lucas Glover, Charley Hoffman, Gary Woodland, Tom Hoge, Keegan Bradley
Opportunities Gained: I like to use this statistic when scores will be low, but not birdie-fest low. It’s part Greens in Regulation and part Proximity, both of which are useful at this course. I will be looking at this statistic on par-72 courses that are over 7,400 yards.
Top 5 Opportunities Gained (par 72, over 7,400 yards, last 100 rounds): Lucas Glover, Tom Hoge, Ryan Moore, Charley Hoffman, Sam Burns
Good Drives: Good Drives are drives that either hit the fairway or drives that miss fairway but still make it to the green or fringe in regulation. This is part of my attempt to target golfers that are either accurate off the tee or can at least make a decent approach shot when they miss the fairway. I will be looking at this statistic on par-72 courses that are over 7,400 yards.
Top 5 Good Drives (par 72, over 7,400 yards, last 100 rounds): Lucas Glover, Kevin Streelman, Corey Connors, Ryan Moore, Sam Ryder
Greens in Regulation: It’s a little redundant because I am already using Opportunities Gained, but I think this tournament could turn into a putting contest and, if you want to compete in putting contest, you have to be hitting greens. I will be looking at this statistic on par-72 courses that are over 7,400 yards.
Top 5 Greens in Regulation (par 72, over 7,400 yards, last 100 rounds): Lucas Glover, Corey Connors, Emiliano Grillo, Keegan Bradley, Brendan Steele
Strokes Gained: Putting: Another staple in my model, I will switch up the surface as needed. This week I will be looking for Bermuda specialists. If you really want to be precise, the greens are Champion Ultra Dwarf Bermudagrass. Other courses on tour that feature this putting surface are Annandale, Trinity Forest, TPC Southwind, Sedgefield Country Club (since 2012) and Quail Hollow (since the 2017).
Top 5 SG: Putting (Bermuda, last 100 rounds): Denny McCarthy, Patton Kizzire, Sam Burns, Brendon Todd, Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Driving Distance: This is the other part of my attempt fix my approach from last week. I am going to give a very small weighting to the statistics; I just want to include it to make sure the bombers pop a little in my model.
Top 5 Driving Distance (last 100 rounds): Brandon Hagy, Trey Mullinax, Luke List, Seth Reeves, Wyndham Clark
After running my model, the statistics that I will be looking at during the sniff test to help make my determinations are Par 4 Scoring and Course History. I described the problem with Course History this week; I don’t think sample sizes are going to be large enough to be representative of reality, so I will go back and look at Course History manually. The Par 4s are going to be among both the easiest and hardest holes on the course, so I want to make sure that I’m rostering golfers that are solid on Par 4s. If you really want to get specific, six of the par 4s are 400 to 450 yards in length.
As always, I’ll be tracking the weather leading up to the event. The weather in Mississippi can be dicey this time of year; it can be chilly in the morning and hot and humid by the afternoon. As of now, the forecast is calling for highs around 80 degrees and lows around 60 degrees, with winds at 5 to 10 mph. We shouldn’t need to target wind specialists, but I’ll provide my usually updates throughout the week. There is rain in the forecast on Wednesday, so the course could be a little soft. The organizers have demonstrated that they won’t hesitate to water the greens, so they’ll be receptive regardless of what happens.
My update on leverage spots will come out on Wednesday, be sure to subscribe to my newsletter to get it in your inbox as soon as it does. My initial thought is that DFSers will see some surprising names in the 10k+ range and favor a more balanced approach to roster construction. This means that we should be able to get some leverage by playing the more expensive golfers. The trick will be identifying the low-priced golfers to pair with them.
Finally, I don’t have any reason to stop using 100% of my usual bankroll this week. I’ll go with my 60/40 cash game to GPP split.
On the other tours: the LPGA will be in Atlantic City for the ShopRite LPGA Classic at the Stockton Seaview Hotel and Golf Club-Bay Course; the PGA European Tour will be in Scotland for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship played across three courses: the Old Course at St. Andrews, Carnoustie, and Kingsbarns; and the PGA TOUR Champions are off
That’s all I have for now, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@glzisk) for any updates.