Happy Masters Sunday!
I will just be honest with you, I’ve been too busy watching the coverage to put together a full version of The Fringe this week. Don’t go anywhere though, I’ve got you covered with the preview of the upcoming tournament.
Enjoy the rest of the action today, it’s shaping up to be a good one.
The Future
The best golfers on the PGA Tour will make the three-hour drive from Augusta to Hilton Head Island for the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links. Anybody else looking to play next week will be in the Dominican Republic for the Corales Puntacana Championship. I will be focusing on the main event; if you are looking for Corales analysis, check out Kahl’s Calls on YouTube and give @Kapta1NKahl a follow on X; he’ll get down in the muck and mire with you to try to find a winner at the alternate-field event.
Known for its usually laid-back post-Masters vibe, the intensity was cranked up last year after the Heritage received designated status. Many of the top golfers in the world will descend upon the island again this year since it is a signature event this season. As a signature event, it is a small-field, no-cut tournament with an increased allotment of prize money and FedEx Cup points.
The tournament was founded in 1969 and has been played at Harbour Town since its inception. The title sponsor has changed throughout the years, but regardless of the sponsor, it has always had the word ‘heritage’ in its name.
Originally a fall event in its first few years, the tournament has been played in April since 1983, usually the week following the Masters. In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic caused the tournament to be postponed until June.
The first edition of the event was won by Arnold Palmer. His win was followed up by wins from other greats of the sport: Johnny Miller, Hale Irwin, and Jack Nicklaus. The tournament saw high-profile champions through the late 1990s, but the strength of field began to wane in the 2000s. Bringing RBC in as a title sponsor in 2012 helped bolster the strength of field, since the company cajoles their team of brand ambassadors to show up each year. The 2020 edition saw an exceptionally strong field due to golfers flooding back into whatever events they could after the pause caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. The tournament returned to its typical strength of field in 2021.
Over the last 20 years, the winning score has usually been right around -10, but it slips into single digits when the winds are up and can climb up to -20 when the winds are down (Webb Simpson won the tournament at -22 in 2020, when it was played in June). Last year, Matt Fitzpatrick and Jordan Spieth were tied at -17 after 72 holes (cutline: -2; median score for cut makers: -7). Fitzpatrick dashed Spieth’s hopes of going back-to-back in Hilton Head by dropping his approach shot on the third playoff hole to kick-in range and making an easy birdie while Spieth was unable to convert a thirty-foot putt to extend the playoffs. Designated status certainly paid off for the tournament, not only did it end in a thrilling playoff between two of the top players, but Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Sahith Theegala finished in the top five as well.
Here are the last ten winners and their scores:
The field
Two things are clear from the quotes about the Harbour Town from the golfers who have played it; it is a unique challenge on tour, and they love it. The appeal for the course has been demonstrated by its strength of field over the years; despite being played directly after the Masters, it would still pull in one of the stronger fields outside of the majors and premier events. It also helped that it the Heritage was an invitational, meaning it had a few notable exceptions from regular tournaments, including a smaller field, no requirement to fill the field using the PGA Tour Priority Ranking System, no open qualifying and the winner was granted a three-year tour exemption.
The tournament’s promotion to a designated event last year helped an already strong field improve to one of the strongest fields of the season with a strength of field of 392 (6th strongest of 43; average was 268).
The 2024 field is set for 70 golfers, with four sponsor exemptions yet to be determined. It is hard to imagine the field getting any stronger this year, so it may fall in the ranks, but it will still be one of the strongest fields of the season. Unless somebody withdraws after The Masters, eight of the top ten golfers in the world are in the field, including defending champion Matt Fitzpatrick. Viktor Hovland is the only eligible golfer in the top ten that will not play the Heritage (Jon Rahm is still third in OWGR, but obviously did not get an invite).
Course Description
Harbour Town is a public course designed by Pete Dye with input from Jack Nicklaus. Although the course now seems like a relic of a bygone era, it was actually revolutionary when it opened in 1967. At a time when courses were built with big fairways and elevated greens, Dye went with narrow fairways, tight corridors, and small greens. Some would also argue that the term ‘waste bunker’ was coined during the construction of the course.
Dye also performed a re-design in 2000.
Prior to the 2020 edition, fairways were widened, and the bunkers were resurfaced or reestablished. Two years ago, there were new tees boxes on the 2nd, 5th, and 17th hole. A new palm tree was planted in the greenside bunker of 10th hole to replace the pine tree that was lost.
Prior to the tournament last year, a new tee box was added to the par-3 7th hole, extending it by 22 yards.
The course is now a 7,213-yard, par-71, technical, Carolina design. Last year, Harbour Town was the 28th most difficult course on tour (out of 49). There are four par 3s, eleven par 4s, and three par 5s. The par 5s are three of the best scoring opportunities on the course. While two of them are reachable in two by most golfers, actually hitting the small greens is difficult and golfers will have to rely on their short game to make birdies. Only four of the par 4s extend over 450 yards, and none of them exceed 473 yards; golfers will regularly have scoring clubs in hand on these holes. There is a 332-yard par 4 that plays as the third most-scorable hole on the course. The par-4 6th and 16th holes also average under par. The par 3s are tough, with all of them measuring over 190 yards in length. No holes at Harbour Town appeared on the list of 50 most difficult holes last year.
You may hear references to Sea Pines this week, which is just the name of the resort on Hilton Head Island in which the course is located, and both names are often used.
Here is the scorecard for 2024:
Off the tee, golfers will see tight, tree-lined fairways (22 yards wide at 300 yards, 29th widest of 30 measured courses; average is 30.9 yards). The average fairway width is skewed by the 18th hole, which features a 75-yard-wide landing zone. Much of the course snakes through a coastal forest, but after the first sixteen holes, the course moves out of the forest and the final two holes run right along the ocean. Dye cleverly used the trees to create narrow chutes and block the view of targets. Although the rough is kept short, if a golfer finds themselves out of position, the approach shot could be blocked by one of the numerous overhanging trees. The grass at Harbour Town is bermudagrass throughout most of the year, but during April it is dominated by the overseed. The rough and fairways are Perennial ryegrass. The rough was kept very short (0.75 inches) for much of the tournament’s history, but it was increased to 2.5 inches last year. This year, the GCSAA Tournament Fact Sheet indicates that it will be 1.25 inches. There are bunkers in the landing zones, including large waste bunkers, and water on every hole. Wayward drives can end up in pine straw as well. There are also numerous doglegs. In classic Dye style, golfers are often forced to make a tough decision off the tee, take on the trouble and get a good angle to the green or play it to a safe location and potentially be blocked out by a tree.
On approach, golfers will be playing into small, domed greens that are hard to hit (3,700 sq. ft.). The putting surface is Poa trivialis. They are usually average in firmness and speed (Stimp=11.5). Overhanging trees, bunkers and water hazards offer additional protection. Organizers also use crafty pin locations to make short approach shots more difficult. There is a little slope and undulation to the putting surfaces, but nothing close to what golfers experience at Augusta.
Harbour Town is a quintessential target golf course. The trouble off the tee combined with the small greens and overhanging trees force golfers to play to a particular spot in fairways, rather than simply bombing it as far as they can. The statistics suggest that the fairways are relatively easy to hit (Driving Accuracy last year was 65.9%; 14th easiest of 47; average was 62.1%), but the ease in hitting the fairways is likely because most golfers are clubbing down to make accurate tee shots (average Driving Distance was 268.8 yards; 34th of 35; average was 285.1). The caution is necessary though; the small, domed-nature of the greens make them some of the toughest on tour to hit (Greens in Regulation last year was 58.2 %; 45th of 47; average was 66.2%). Golfers need to keep their ball in the fairway if that want any chance at holding the putting the surface on approach. Missing the green does not necessarily come with a square on the scorecard, as the scrambling percentage was 62.2% last year (5th of 47; average was 58.5%).
The Course Table on DataGolf highlights the complexity of Dye’s design. Over the last five years, it has had the second lowest Driving Distance and Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, which I take to mean that there is not much to be gained from being a long driver of the golf ball. It also had the fourth lowest rough penalty and non-rough penalty, indicating that hitting the fairway is not particularly important either. It has had the fifth most Strokes Gained: Around the Green, fourth most Strokes Gained: Around the Green from the fairway, and fifth most Strokes Gained: Around the Green from the rough. While the course plays fairly easy around the green, it is the fifth most difficult on approach from within 150 yards. The course has also had the fifth most reloads over the last five years.
The Weather
As a coastal course, the weather is one of Harbour Town’s greatest defenses. It can be one of the easier courses or one of the hardest courses on tour, depending on how hard the wind is blowing and how firm the greens are. Remember, much of the course is protected from the wind by forest, so a strong wind is needed to impact the golfers. As of now, the forecast is calling for winds under 10 mph with only slightly stronger gusts for much of the tournament. There has not been any rain lately, and none in the forecast, so greens should be firm.
DFS Strategy
Harbour Town requires strategy and good course management. Golfers must place their tee shots in the correct position to be able to access the greens. They will then have to be precise with their irons to hit the greens. Even though scrambling is not overly difficult at this course, golfers will have to do it often, so they will need to be skillful around the greens. With two reachable par 5s, a drivable par 4, doglegs, tons of water, and pin positions close to trouble, there is a bevy of risk/reward opportunities. Golfers that are capable of successfully navigating the course have just as much of a chance of winning here as the bomb gougers.
As usual, I will start my process by building my course fit model and putting together Recent Form and Course History spreadsheets. I will use my model to target golfers that hit a lot of fairways or can hit the green when they miss it, are precise with their mid-irons, have a nice touch around the greens, and are comfortable putting on Poa trivialis.
I will take a look at course history this week but will only give it a little consideration and mainly use it as a tiebreaker. On a course like Harbour Town, golfers will benefit from understanding where to place tee shots, how to navigate the narrow sightlines, and which risks to take on. Datagolf, however, puts it in the middle of the pack in predictiveness. Although the course has received a handful of renovations throughout its history, the work has always stayed true to Pete Dye’s original design. I think you can go back as far as you want when looking at course history (I will stick to my usual decade of course history data). The course was a little more getable when it was held in June, but the overall nature of the course was the same, and I will take 2020 into consideration.
Here is the top ten from my One-and-Done tool:
Patrick Cantlay
Matt Kuchar
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Daniel Berger
Cameron Davis
J.T. Poston
Tyrrell Hatton
Webb Simpson
Tommy Fleetwood
Corey Conners
Here are the course fit statistics I will use (all last 100 rounds):
Off-the-tee:
Good Drives Gained: Harbour Town is a course that rewards accuracy over distance; golfers must play their tee shot to the correct position to have a good line to the green, ideally from the fairway so they can control the spin on the small greens. Even if golfers miss the fairway, as long as they are properly positioned, they can still hit the green. I will look at this statistic at courses under 7,200 yards in length.
Approach:
Strokes Gained: Approach: A staple in my model week after week; precision on the approach is needed to contend at Harbour Town, so I will give it a little extra weighting this week. I will look at this statistic at courses under 7,200 yards in length.
Opportunities Gained: I really want to emphasize the approach game, specifically if golfers are hitting greens with regularity and giving themselves opportunities to make birdies. I will look at this statistic at courses under 7,200 yards in length.
Proximity from 150-175 and 175-200: Even though it is a shorter course, golfers are forced to layup frequently, meaning this will not just be a wedge fest. About half of the approach shots at Harbour Town come from these distances.
Around-the-green:
Strokes Gained: Around the Green: The scrambling percentage is higher than the tour average, so scrambling should not be too difficult, but with small greens designed to repel approach shots golfers could find themselves scrambling to save par on multiple occasions. I want to roster golfers that get up-and-down consistently.
Putting:
Strokes Gained: Putting on Poa trivialis: Putting is another staple in my model, I will switch up the surface as needed. This week we are targeting Poa trivialis specialists. For this specific grass type, I will look at putting statistics from TPC Sawgrass, TPC Scottsdale, PGA West Stadium Course, TPC San Antonio, and Innisbrook.
Scoring:
Par 5 Scoring: Aside from the drivable par 4, the par 5s are the best scoring opportunities on the course. Golfers must take advantage of them to compete.
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 Yards: With five holes that fall into this range and another at 451 yards, I want to roster golfers that perform well on holes of this length.
Birdies or Better Gained/Bogey Avoidance: Depending on conditions, scoring could be difficult or easy. Once I get a better idea of how the course will play, I will look at either Birdies or Better gained or Bogey Avoidance. If it is going to be windy, I will look at Bogey Avoidance. If the winds are down or the course is going to be soft and receptive, I will look at Birdies. Right now, I am leaning towards the latter.
After building my model, I usually look at a few other statistics to help make my determinations. This week, I will look at Strokes Gained: Total on Par 71 Courses under 7,200 yards, Fairways Gained, Strokes Gained: Total on Pete Dye courses, Recent results at the Valspar and Strokes Gained: Total in the wind.
If you account for the par of the course when considering distance, Harbour Town is an average length course. I want to make sure that anybody I roster has had success on courses of this size.
Harbour Town demands accuracy off the tee. While I am looking for golfers that are accurate and can hit the green from the rough with my model, I would prefer if they are hitting the fairways and will give preference to golfers with strong Fairways Gained numbers.
Golfers that play well on one Pete Dye course tend to play well on other Pete Dye courses. I want to give preference to golfers that have demonstrated a knack for playing his courses.
One of the trends you will probably hear this week is that ten of the last fourteen winners of the RBC Heritage previously had a top ten finish at the Valspar. It makes sense, they have the same agronomy, similarly narrow tree-lined fairways, both are less-than-driver courses, and both have smallish greens. It is even said that Innisbrook has a Carolina feel despite being in Florida. I will check histories at the Valspar to confirm if a golfer is a good fit for Harbour Town.
As of now, it does not look like there will be strong winds, but, as a coastal course, it is very possible that we will get some unexpectedly strong winds during the tournament. I want to roster golfers that are comfortable playing in the windy coastal conditions.
I will also build a model that includes statistics that are only available using The Rabbit Hole on Betsperts.com. This model will include Good Drive % on courses with Low Missed Fairway Penalty, Strokes Gained: Approach on courses with Difficult GIR Accuracy, Strokes Gained: Around the Green on courses with Easy ARG Gain, SG: Putting on Poa trivialis, Par 5 BoB% on courses with Small Greens. Keep in mind that I am still trying to wrap my head around all of the filters available in The Rabbit Hole, and these statistics may change. I will also probably add Birdie or Better % or Bogey Avoidance.
Turning to the Roster Construction Matrix, we have a strong field on a medium difficulty course; the matrix points us towards the stars-and-scrubs build. A shorter course with easy to hit fairways would usually turn into a putting contest and the best players in the field would lose their edge. Harbour Town has some teeth though; it may not need elite physical skills, but it does need elite cerebral skills. The best golfers in the world do not just get the job done with their body, they are also the best between the ears. It is only a one-year sample, but the worst finish by a 10k+ golfer last year was T15. Stars and scrubs is the way to go unless you are trying to be contrarian.
As always, we should be on the lookout for ways to get leverage on our opponents. We will start in the same two places we start our search for leverage every week, then move onto to other ways to get leverage specific to this tournament. The first is the ownership projections, where we will try to identify the chalk, and then look for good pivots off the chalk. The next place we should look is in the pricing; identify golfers that are priced too low and consider fading them because they will likely be over-owned and identify the golfers that are priced too high and give them consideration because the DFS community will try to avoid them.
I think most DFS players will be going with the stars-and-scrubs build this week, you can get leverage by going with balanced builds. If you want to stay with the stars-and-scrubs build, you can try to differentiate yourself by going with one of the variations of stars-and-scrubs lineups we’ve been seeing in the winning-lineup reviews (the standard build being one 10k, one 9k, one 8k, two 7k, and one 6k golfer).
With a small pool of golfers that are among the best in the game to choose from, ownership will probably be evenly distributed. When this is the case, you can get some leverage by not using all of the available salary; your lineup has a good chance of being unique if you intentionally spend less than the maximum.
I also think that DFS players will be targeting the plodders (short but accurate) with strong course histories. We can differentiate ourselves by targeting the bombers. They will probably go overlooked, but if they are able to dial it back off the tee when needed, their distance could give them an advantage on the par 5s and on the cuttable doglegs. We can also target golfers with little or no course history. Experience at the course should be helpful, but Wesley Bryan and Satoshi Kodaira both won on their first attempts, so it is not a prerequisite for success.
Since the tournament was moved to the week after the Masters, golfers that played the weekend at Augusta, golfers that missed the cut, and golfers that did not play the Masters, have all won at Harbour Town. If there is a golfer you like, I would not let whether or not they played in the Masters impact your decision to roster them.
Finally, I will be using 100% of my usual bankroll this week. The RBC Heritage is one of my favorite events, so I am definitely not holding back, but if you indulged a little too much during the Masters, it might be good to nurse the hangover and dial it back a little.
That’s all I have for now, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@glzisk) for any updates.
Have a great week!