The Fringe

PGA DFS preview: The Genesis Invitational and Torrey Pines Golf Course

Good morning, Fringe readers!

Some of you may have caught that I teased another bit of content coming your way from me this season. I am now ready to let it fly this week.

This Wednesday, I will be sending out a deluxe version of my Recent Form and Course History spreadsheet. The main reason I am sending out a second spreadsheet is because I learned how to calculate projected ownerships and I think I’m good enough at it now to share with other people.

You will also see a few things not included in the regular spreadsheet. First, there will be some golfers names highlighted in green. These are some of my favorite plays based on the statistics I am focusing on for the week; the darker the green, the stronger my conviction. You will also see some DraftKings salaries highlighted in green or red; salaries in green are good values compared to their implied odds and those in red are expensive compared to their implied odds. I will also highlight some of the projected ownerships; those in red are the chalk and those in green are the pivots. Finally, I will also have tee times on the sheet; tee times that are highlighted green are the tee times with projected wave advantage, the darker the green the stronger my conviction.

The rankings are also my updated rankings incorporating the Course Fit model, my Rabbit Hole model, and personal adjustments based on a host of factors.

This will just be a trial run to see if I can actually pull it off midweek, but I appreciate any feedback you have.

The Past

Aaaaaargh! I accidentally deleted my writeup on the winning lineups last week and didn’t have time to re-write it. Long story short; the most successful lineups on the week were stars-and-scrubs lineups led by Rory McIlroy but a couple super stars-and-scrubs lineups found their way to the top of the leaderboard as well.

The Future

The PGA Tour is making an unexpected trip back to southern California. Due to the tragic wildfires that devasted Pacific Palisades, The Genesis Invitational has been moved from Riviera Country Club to Torrey Pines Golf Course, home of the Farmers Insurance Open, in La Jolla.

It’s the second time in a matter of weeks that the PGA Tour will be at Torrey Pines. A lot of this will be review but I do have some updated observations, and we’ll have to tweak our strategies because this tournament will not utilize the same two-course rotation used for the Farmers.

It’s also the final leg of the West Coast Swing before the PGA Tour heads south of the border.

Established in 1926, the Genesis Invitational is one of the longest running tournaments on tour. It went by the Los Angeles Open until 1995, when it became the Nissan Open. In 2008, Northern Trust took over the title sponsorship, and Genesis took it over in 2017.

The tournament moved around to various courses in the Los Angeles area before settling down at Riviera in 1973 (even visiting a few times during its nomadic days). The Genesis has been held there every year since with only three exceptions; in 1983, when the PGA Championship was played there, 1998, when the U.S. Senior Open came to town, and, of course, this year.

As might be expected of a tournament with nearly 100 years of history, a few notable events have occurred during its run: Babe Zaharias became the first female to play in a men’s professional tournament when she played in the 1938 edition, Jack Nicklaus earned his first professional paycheck at the Los Angeles Open in 1962, and Tiger Woods played in his first PGA event as an amateur at Riviera in 1992. Riviera became known as Hogan’s Alley in 1948 when Ben Hogan won three events in a two-year period there (the Los Angeles Open twice and the 1948 U.S Open).

In 2020, Tiger Woods became the official tournament host.

With the backing of its new tournament host, the Genesis was given invitational status in 2020 (changing its name from Open to Invitational). Invitational status provides a few notable exceptions from regular tournaments, including smaller fields, no requirement to fill the field using the PGA Tour Priority Ranking System, no open qualifying, and the winner is granted a three-year tour exemption, instead of two.

The field

The strength of the field for the Genesis was already among the strongest on tour, but it received a significant bump when Tiger Woods took on the hosting duties. Prior to becoming a designated event two years ago, it was only behind the majors, The Players, and the Match Play in strength of field. As a designated event and then a Signature Event last year, the strength of field relative to other tournaments actually went down but it was still considered a strong field (322.9; 13^th of 43; average was 275.3). I suspect this has more to do with the changes in OWGR calculations than it does a change in the caliber of golfer in attendance; smaller fields are punished for their size under the new system.

As a Signature Event in 2025, the field will have a minimum of 72 golfers. There are still a number of entries to be determined, including the Aon Swing 5 at the conclusion of the WM Phoenix Open, anybody in the top 30 of OWGR at the conclusion of the WM Phoenix Open not already exempt, the winner of the WM Phoenix Open if not already exempt, and one sponsor exemption.

The field is already stacked though and any additions are unlikely to improve it much. Seven of the top ten golfers in the world are in the field; the only golfers missing are Xander Schauffele and a couple of LIV golfers. There will also be 22 of the top 25 golfers in the world.

On Friday we got word that the field would be headlined by the tournament host, Tiger Woods. The field might be stacked, but Tiger is still the headliner. Also in the field is Danny List, recipient of the Charlie Sifford Memorial Exemption.

Here is a link to the full field.

It should be noted, there is a 36-hole to the top 50 and ties plus any player within 10 shots of the lead. Also, the winner will receive 20% of the purse ($4 million) as opposed to the regular 18%.

Course Description

Torrey Pines Golf Course is a 36-hole facility with two courses simply named the North Course and South Course. The Farmers utilizes both courses, but just the South Course will be used for the Genesis.

The courses, originally designed by William Bell, are situated on the cliffs along the Pacific Ocean, and as picturesque as they may be now, the location was once the site of Camp Callan, a training center for the U.S. Army during World War II built on land leased from the City of San Diego. From 1941 until the end of 1945, it served as training grounds for anti-aircraft artillery replacement. In 1956, the city elected to build a public golf course on the site and give the rest of the land to the State of California, which would become part of the Torrey Pines State Natural Reserve.

The courses get knocked for their simplistic design and poor use of the natural terrain. Despite these flaws, the South Course challenges every aspect of the game and does not give anything away too easily (the North Course isn’t quite as difficult). So, it may not be the most architecturally compelling property on tour, but it does make for a good viewing experience.

The South Course consistently plays as one of the toughest courses on tour, while the North Course is usually one of the least challenging courses on tour. Both are coastal courses, so the weather plays a big a role in how tough the courses play, and we have seen a wide range of winning scores as a result. Four years ago, Patrick Reed battled a storm on Friday that brought wind, rain, a little hail, a weather delay, soft conditions, and embedded balls to win by five strokes at -14 (cutline: -1; median score for cutmakers: -2,). Three years ago, in much more benign conditions, Luke List and Will Zalatoris were tied at -15 after 72 holes (cutline was -3, median score for cutmakers was -7) and List birdied the first playoff hole to get the win. Two years ago, temperatures were cool and there were strong winds on Thursday and Saturday. Max Homa made up a five-stroke deficit in the final round to win by two strokes over Keegan Bradley at -13 (cutline E; median score for cutmakers was +1).

Last year, there was rain throughout the week leading up to the tournament but during the tournament, conditions were as optimal as they get for this time of year in La Jolla; highs in the 50 with mostly cloudy skies and almost no wind throughout the tournament. I thought that the rain might make scoring even easier at the North Course on Thursday, but learned on the PGA Tour radio broadcast that because the greens on the North Course are a mix of Poa and bentgrass, the greens get patchier with rain-induced growth and are tougher to putt on, making scoring more difficult (scoring was a little easier at the South Courses on Thursday). The lower scores never really materialized and Matthieu Pavon was able to win the tournament with a fairly standard -13, one shot better than Nicolai Hojgaard (cutline -3; median score for cutmakers was -4).

This year, just a couple of weeks ago, Harris English shot a 66 in the third round to take the 54-hole lead. He then went on to shoot one over par on Sunday, just good enough to hold onto a one-shot victory over Sam Stevens (winning score: -8; cutline: +1; median score for cutmakers: +1).

When the U.S. Open was played at Torrey Pines 2021, golfers only played the South Course and didn’t get the benefit of padding their scores at the North Course. Jon Rahm was able to claim a one-shot victory over Louis Oosthuizen at -6 (Harris English finished third). Only 12 golfers finished the week under par.

Here are the last ten winners and their scores:

The South Course received a redesign from Rees Jones in 2019 in preparation for the U.S. Open that it hosted in 2021. Some trees were added, some bunkers were shifted, and a bunker was added to the par-5 9th to make the second shot a little more difficult. The most noticeable change was the addition of back tees to a few holes, making the longest course on tour even longer. There doesn’t appear to have been any changes made to the courses since last year’s event.

The scorecard for Torrey Pines South Course from the Farmers is identical to the scorecard for the Genesis, so it doesn’t appear organizers will be switching up the course at all.

The course is a monstrous 7,765-yard, par-72, classical design. By par, it is the longest course on tour this year (out of the 45 courses I did calculation for). It was the 9th most difficult course on tour last year (out of the 43 courses that are ranked by DataGolf).

There are four par 3s, ten par 4s, and four par 5s. The four par 5s, though long (two are over 600 yards in length), are the four best scoring opportunities on the course. There is also a short par 4 that played under par and a par 3 that played one hundredth of a stroke under par. Other than that, all the holes played at or over par. The hardest holes on the course are the long par 4s that all play over 462 yards (one is over 500 yards), and the 225-yard, par-3 11th hole.

Here is the official 2025 scorecard:

Off the tee, golfers will see narrow, tree-lined fairways (25 yards wide at 300 yards, 8th narrowest of 34 measured courses). The rough is ryegrass overseed that is kept at 4 inches in length. The fairways are also ryegrass. The fairways are also protected by bunkers (there is a total of 82 on the course). Most of the holes are straight or have a slight dogleg to the right (favoring right-handed golfers that hit a cut). The terrain is a little hilly; the overall elevation change is 35 m, and golfers will climb 123 m during their walk. There is only one water hazard on the course, and it does not come into play off the tee, which explains why the South Course has one of the lowest fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke on tour, according to DataGolf.

On approach golfers will see small (5,000 sq. ft.), Poa annua greens. My notes indicate that the greens are right around the average in speed (Stimp= 11.5), but FNGC lists them as fast or lightning. I will try to find another source to confirm the speed of the greens. They tend to play firm, but can be receptive at times, so we should pay attention to what golfers are saying about course conditions leading up to the tournament. The Director of Agronomy at Torrey Pines said it has been the driest winter in his nine years at the course, so I doubt they will play as soft as last year. The green complexes are long and narrow, are contoured or tiered, and tend to be sloped from back to front. They are protected by bunkers and thick rough, but they are often accessible through openings in the front. The only water on the course protects the 18th green.

Driving accuracy was 52.9% in 2024 (41st of 44; average was 62.7%;), while Greens in Regulation was 62.4% (33rd of 44; average was 66.7%). The average Driving Distance was 286.3 yards (tied for 19th of 35; average was 284.9). Even though the fairways are tight and difficult to hit, Driving Distance is still right around the tour average, suggesting golfers are playing the course straight-up off the tee; not being overly aggressive to make up for the distance or clubbing down too much to stay in fairway even if it means a difficult approach shot into a small green. Scrambling percentage was 52.2% (43rd of 44; average was 58.8%), so hitting the greens is a huge benefit, but a missed green must be worth the risk of taking on the length of the course.

I’ve only report the 2024 statistics for the sake of comparison to the other courses for which we have statistics. The statistics from the 2025 Farmers only changed by tenths of a percentage.

Not only is the South Course in the top five hardest course on tour this year according to DataGolf, but the par 4s and 5s are in the top five for difficulty among all of the courses in their database. The course is demanding from tee to green; it is the bottom five for both Driving Accuracy and Strokes Gained: Putting. It is the fifth most difficult course for putting within five feet and the most difficult course for putting between five and fifteen feet. Golfers better have their best stuff when they get to the South Course.

Weather

As coastal a track, the weather can have a significant impact at Torrey Pines. The organizers of the Farmers want the fairways to run, and the greens to have a little bounce to them, but rain has prevented that in the recent past. With the dry winter they’ve had in southern California, organizers got their way for the 2025 Farmers. They probably won’t play that way for the Genesis, however. The current forecast is calling for rain to start Wednesday night and keep going through Saturday morning. The rain is also bringing wind with it. Thursday looks to it will get winds of 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Friday they step up to 20-25 mph with 30 mph gusts. On Saturday they come back down to 15-20 mph and on Sunday they will be in the single digits. Temperatures will be in the 50s with mostly cloudy skies.

With winds these strong, we’ll certainly want to be on the lookout for a wave stack, but we’ll also have to remember to consider any delays in our calculations. And we’ll most certainly want to look out for the wind specialist.

DFS Strategy

The obvious change to our strategy for this visit to Torrey Pines is the absence of the two-course rotation. In terms of the type of golfers that I will be looking for, the lack of the North Course this week won’t change my approach very much. I’ve always ignored the North Course and simply modelled for the South Course. It will change, however, how we handle wave stacking. With a two-course rotation, we stacked by course; now we can go with our standard stacking routine.

The size of the field is also different, which will have implications for roster construction, particularly how we get leverage, but I’ll cover all that later in the newsletter.

I am also going to change up the type of golfers that I will target this week, but this based on my observations from the Farmers rather than the aforementioned changes.

The list of winners demonstrates that there are different paths to the top of the leaderboard; by excelling at one or two aspects and not giving up too much in the other aspects, golfers can find themselves in contention at Torrey Pines. Jon Rahm got his win with his characteristically strong off-the-tee game, Luke List did it on the approach and one of the best putting performances of his career, Patrick Reed did it with his short game, and Marc Leishman did it by breaking even on the par 5s and making hay on the par 3s. Two years ago, Max Homa lost strokes on Driving Distance, but hit a lot of fairways, was best in the field on approach, and had a top ten performance on the greens. Last year, Matthieu Pavon was right around average for Driving Distance, top 25 in accuracy, third on approach and fifth and putting.

Everybody from bombers to plodders has been successful here. I think given the length of the South Course, the plodders have a tighter path, and less room for error, to get to the top of the leaderboard; they have to be accurate off the tee, strong with their long irons, and sharp with their short game to have any chance at success. The same can be said for the bombers, but their misses will be more forgiving since they will have shorter irons in their hands.

For the Farmers, I started by targeting the longer hitters but included some ballstrikers in my player pool. And boy it was frustrating. Watching my golfers on the PGA Tour app, I consistently saw shorter hitters missing fairways and making bogey. For shorter hitters, missing the fairway at Torrey Pines is almost an automatic bogey. The bombers at least gave themselves a chance of saving par when they missed the fairway. After watching all this, I typed in my notes to focus on the bombers next year. Little did I know that I would be putting that observation to use so quickly.

As usual, I will start my process by building my course fit model and putting together Recent Form and Course History spreadsheets. I will use the model to target golfers that are long off the tee, can hit the fairway from the rough, are good with their middle to long irons, can avoid bogeys when they miss the green, and are comfortable putting on West Coast Poa annua.

We were still a little light on Recent Form data for the Farmers, but with a couple more weeks under our belts, we should have a sense of how everybody is playing now. Torrey Pines is a tough course; I want to roster golfers that are in good form and not trying to find something at Torrey. There is also a visit to Torrey Pines in our Recent Form data, so we’ll want to pay extra attention to that.

Of course, I will be looking at Course History from Torrey Pines and not Riviera. This should be obvious, but I just want to make sure you don’t forget. Even though the North Course isn’t included this time, I think we can look at results from the Farmers since most of the rounds come from the South Course.

I think Course History matters at Torrey Pines, so I will be looking for golfers with strong records in La Jolla. The South Course is a grind, every shot demands your full attention, and that gets taxing after a couple of days. I want golfers that have proven they are up for the test. Experience will also help golfers understand where their misses are and how to contend with the wind if it gets going. The Poa annua greens are uncommon, so prior experience on them should prove helpful. I will make note of golfers that have not played in the Farmers but will not immediately cross them off my list. If they perform well in my course fit model, I will give them some consideration. This tournament has been played at Torrey Pines since 1968 and always in January or early February, so feel free to go back as far as you want for data.

Here are the course fit statistics that I will be using (all from the last 100 rounds):

• Off-the-tee:

  • Driving Distance: I am targeting the bombers this week; no better way to do that than look at who drives the ball the farthest. I will look at this statistic on courses longer than 7,400 yards.

  • Good Drive Gained: I would prefer my golfers to be accurate off the tee, but with golfers missing the fairway about half of the time, they must be able to hit a few greens from the rough if they want to contend. I will look at this statistic on courses longer than 7,400 yards.

• Approach:

  • Strokes Gained: Approach: A staple in my model week after week. All types of golfers have had success at Torrey Pines, the common thread is hitting the greens. I will look at this statistic on courses longer than 7,400 yards.

  • Opportunities Gained: I like to use this statistic as a proxy for Greens in Regulation; it’s a measure of birdie opportunities inside of fifteen plus greens or fringe in regulation. Hitting a lot of greens will be crucial this week, golfers are about 50/50 to get up-and-down when they miss the green at the South Course. I will look at this statistic on courses longer than 7,400 yards.

  • Proximity 175-200 and 200+: I am really emphasizing the approach game this week, particularly the long irons. Almost 50% of approach shots will come from over 175 yards out, so golfers will need to be adept at hitting the green from long range.

• Around the Green:

  • Strokes Gained: Around the Green: At most courses, if you’re not hitting the greens, you’re probably scrambling to save par and not making the birdies needed to contend. The South Course is a different story, with long approaches, greens designed to repel approach shots, and difficult scoring overall, the short game is paramount.

• Putting:

  • SG: Putting on Poa annua: Putting is another staple in my model, I will switch up the surface as needed. This week, I am going to look at putting on Poa annua. The early season West Coast Poa annua plays differently than the Poa annua we see later in the season, so I am going to look specifically at SG: Putting at Riviera, Pebble Beach, and Torrey Pines (South).

• Scoring:

  • Bogey Avoidance: With tough to hit greens and few scoring opportunities on the South Course, par is going to be good score on most holes.

  • Par 5 Scoring: The few scoring opportunities available to golfers will come on the par 5s, I want to make sure that I am rostering golfers that get it done when these chances come their way.

  • Strokes Gained: Total on Courses over 7,400 yards that are Difficult Relative to Par: The South Course at Torrey Pines is a beast unto itself, only one course on tour comes within 100 yards of its length. I want to make sure that anybody I roster is up to the challenge.

After building my model, I usually have a few other statistics that I will look at to help make my determinations. This week, I will look at Par 5 Scoring 600-650 yards, Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards and Strokes Gained: Total in the Wind.

• Two of the par 5s that golfers will see this week are over 600 yards long. We do not see too many of these on tour. I want to roster golfers that can potentially take advantage of them and avoid anybody that will struggle with the length.

• A third of the holes on the South Course are par 4s in the 450-to-500-yard range, golfers will have to take care of business on them if they want to contend.

• It looks like the wind will be blowing for most of the tournament, I want to roster golfers that have had success in windy conditions.

I will also build a model that includes statistics that are only available using The Rabbit Hole on Betsperts.com. I use this model to look at specific challenges of a particular course or fill in the gaps of my main model. For the Farmers, I will look at Total Driving on Long Courses, Strokes Gained: Approach at Courses with Difficult GIR, Proximity from the Rough, Scrambling from the Rough and Short Grass, Around the Green Proximity, Strokes Gained: Putting on West Coast Poa annua, Par 5 BoB%, Strokes Gained: Total on Long and Difficult Courses and Strokes Gained: Total at California Courses.

The statistics that I will be focusing on to start my player pool are Driving Distance, Strokes Gained: Approach at Courses over 7,400 yards, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, and Strokes Gained: Total at Long and Difficult Courses.

A new part of my process for this season is looking at the amount of times golfers have gained three or more strokes putting over the last 100 rounds on a specific surface. Here are the top ten putters on the courses listed above when looking at spike performances:

Turning to the roster construction matrix, we have a strong field on a difficult course, so we should be building stars-and-scrubs lineups, or possibly super star-and-scrubs lineups. The Signature Events have largely been dominated by the best golfers in the field, we should try to get as many of them into our lineups as possible. Additionally, the Birdie was won by a stars-and-scrubs lineup.

I normally pick a couple of golfers from the top range to build my lineups around and then diversify in the lower ranges, but in these elevated events we might want to do the opposite. We might want to try to get overexposed to a couple of golfers in the lower range and then diversify in the upper ranges. It all depends on how much we like those golfers in the lower ranges, but given the strength of these fields, I think it’s at least worth investigating.

As always, we should be looking for ways to get leverage on our opponents.

We will start our search for leverage in the same two places we start our search every week, then move onto to other ways to get leverage specific to this tournament. The first is the ownership projections, where we will try to identify the chalk, and then look for good pivots off the chalk. The next place we should look is in the pricing; identify golfers that are priced too low and consider fading them because they will likely be over-owned and identify the golfers that are priced too high and give them consideration because the DFS community will try to avoid them.

After that, we have a few different ways we can go this week, but looking at past results, at Torrey Pines and the Signature Events, the cream usually rises to the top, so I wouldn’t go crazy trying to get different. On top of that, cumulative ownership for the winning lineup last year was 71.8%, right in the middle of the range that we typically shoot for (60-80%). I have quite a few suggestions on ways to get leverage this week, but, again, you don’t have to go crazy, taking one or two of these suggestions should be enough.

First, I think most DFS players are going to play stars-and-scrubs lineups or even try to cram two 10k+ golfers into their lineups, so going with a more balanced build should get you leverage.

There is also another way of getting leverage through roster construction. We can use the standard roster constructions that I always write about, but we can switch up the combinations to create unique builds. For instance, the standard star-and-scrubs lineup consists of one 10k, one 9k, one 8k, two 7k, and one 6k golfers. If you skip the 9k range in favor of two 8k golfers and three 7k golfers, you have a better chance of a unique lineup because other DFS players are less likely to use that combination of golfers.

You can also leave extra salary on the table when building your lineups. Most DFS players try to use all of their available salary, you can get different by not spending all of it; I think $500 to $1000 is enough. With all three of these methods, you can still use chalky golfers because you will be putting together unique combinations of golfers and will be less likely to be duplicated.

I also think a lot of focus will be given to the bombers. We can probably find some low-owned golfers if we look for golfers that are shorter off the tee, but accurate, and have a strong short game. If you want to go this route, I would remove Driving Distance from the model and increase the weight on SG: Around the Green.

I also think a lot will be made of course history, with DFS players rostering golfers with past success at Torrey Pines. Golfers that have not played the courses will probably be overlooked.

The same old narratives regarding Torrey Pines will also be back this week. Just to name a couple that have been floating around: 11 of the last 15 winners had a previous top ten at the Farmers, and golfers with a California connection tend to play well here (it’s also been beneficial to start on the South Course but that doesn’t apply this time). The golfers that fit these trends and narratives are likely to see a bump in ownership, and we can get leverage by pivoting to similarly priced golfers.

Finally, I am going to continue with my usual bankroll this week, focusing entirely on GPPs. As I mentioned last week, I’ve gotten off to slow start this season and this week teeters on the edge of a knife. If things go my way today, I’ll stick with my usual, but if things go poorly, I’m going to consider pulling back a little.

That’s all I have for now, be sure to follow me on Twitter (glzisk) for any updates.