The Valspar has been a bloodbath, so I wouldn’t blame you if you want to turn the page already, but I first want to apologize for another abbreviated edition of The Fringe. Now that my Curling season is over and the kid’s winter sports season is wrapping up, I see just one more abbreviated edition in the near future.
As always though, I’ve still got the goods on the upcoming tournament and course. I’ll also be making my usual posts on X.
The Future
The PGA TOUR heading to Texas for a two-week stint in the Lone Star State. The first stop is the Texas Children’s Houston Open at the Memorial Park Golf Course.
The Houston Open was established in 1946 and has always been played in the Houston area. It has even played at Memorial Park before, once in 1947 and then from 1951 through 1963. Prior to coming back to Memorial Park in 2020, the tournament had been played at the Golf Club of Houston since 2003.
For most of its history, the event was held in the spring, usually serving as the warmup for the Masters in more recent times. In 2019, to the dismay of organizers, it was moved to October. It was thought that relegation to the fall series would severely damage the status of the long-running tournament and threaten its already tenuous viability. The tournament was moved again in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic; getting pushed back to November and serving as the warmup for the Masters one more time. It was played in November for the next two years.
When the PGA Tour shifted their schedule to a calendar-year format for 2024, the Houston Open did not appear on the FedEx Cup Fall schedule. Instead, it had been returned to its previous spot in the spring. It also had a new title sponsor.
After Shell Oil Company gave up the title sponsorship in 2017, a group led by Houston Astros owner Jim Crane took over the sponsorship. The tournament is now operated by the Astros Golf Foundation with various corporations acting as title sponsors. In the first two years under Astros management, the tournament was played without a title sponsor. Vivint served as title sponsor in 2020. Hewlett Packard Enterprise took a turn as the title sponsor in 2021. Then Cadence Bank served as title sponsor for 2022. (Due to the changes in the schedule, there was no event in 2023).
Memorial Park has proven to be a sterner test than the Golf Club of Houston. While the former home regularly saw scores in the high teens, and even 20-strokes under par, Memorial Park is yet to concede such favorable scoring conditions. In 2022, Tony Finau held a share of the lead after the first round and then ran away with it. He finished at -16, the lowest score since moving to Memorial Park (his aggregate score of 264 was also a tournament record), and four strokes better than his closest competitor, Tyson Alexander (cutline was E; median score for cutmakers was -1.5).
Here all of the winners at Memorial Park and their scores:
The field
Even as a tune-up for the Masters, the strength of the fields for the Houston Open were consistently below average. The drop off after moving to the fall swing was only marginal, however. Last year, the strength of field was 222 (26th of 43; average was 268).
It appears that the tournament will see a similar strength of field this year. Scottie Scheffler is in the field, but there is only one other golfer inside the top ten in OWGR, Wyndham Clark. Sahith Theegala and Jason Day are the only other golfers inside the top 25. Will Zalatoris and Tony Finau are in the field, but there isn’t anybody notable after that.
The field is set for 144 golfers, with two sponsor exemptions and four open qualifiers yet to be determined.
Course Description
Memorial Park is a municipal park in Houston. It originally only had a nine-hole course. The 18-hole course was designed by John Bredemus and built on the former site of the nine-hole course. It opened in 1936.
The Astros Foundation, which now runs the tournament, committed $34 million to renovate and redesign the golf course and its facilities in order to bring a PGA event to the course. Tom Doak was brought on to handle the redesign and renovation, with some assistance from Brooks Koepka. The work was completed in 2019.
Doak and Koepka set out to build a course that would be challenging for the professionals, create some drama and excitement for viewers, but also be playable for recreational golfers. They reduced the number of bunkers from 54 to 19, added slope and undulation to the fairways and greens, and brought the naturally occurring ravines and water hazards into play.
Memorial Park Golf Course is now one of the top-rated municipal golf courses in Texas.
Since the last time we saw the course in 2022, the par-4 17th hole has been lengthened. The GCSAA Tournament Fact Sheet indicates that the green was moved back 30 yards, but a comparison of the 2022 and 2024 scorecards shows an increase from 382 to 405 yards, a total of 23 yards. Two bunkers were also added around the 17th green, bringing the count to 21 bunkers on the course.
Memorial Park is now a 7,435-yard, par-70, resort-style course. It was the 11th most difficult course of the 2022-23 PGA Tour season (out of 49). There are five par 3s, ten par 4s, and three par 5s. Two of the par 5s can be reached in two by longer hitters, and the third is a 630-yard goliath. True to their word, while the par-5 16th is reachable in two, Doak and Koepka put water on three sides of the green, making it a big risk/reward hole. There are three par 4s that are over 500 yards and play as the hardest holes on the course. The 529-yard 14th and the 522-yard 1st holes were the 31st and 45th hardest holes on tour last year, respectively. There is another 496-yard par 4 that played over par as well. There is a wide distribution of lengths for the par 3s, with the shortest being 155 yards and the longest coming in at 237 yards.
Here is the official 2024 scorecard:
Off of the tee, drivers will see wide, tree-lined fairways (average width of the landing areas is 30-40 yards according to the GCSAA). The trees are far removed from the fairway and should only be an issue on the most wayward tee shots. When the tournament was played in November, the turf was bermudagrass throughout the course. In late March, the bermudagrass is still dormant and the rough and fairways consist of perennial ryegrass. The rough is short though, just 1.25 inches in length. I counted only three fairway bunkers. Water comes into play on four holes, but only two tee shots are impacted by the water. There is a difference of 28 m between the highest and lowest points on the course, and golfers will climb a total of 119 m during their rounds. The front nine is almost flat, but the back nine has significant elevation changes, particularly the par-4 10th hole that plays uphill and the par-13th hole that plays downhill.
The greens are above average in size (7,000 sq. ft.). They were resurfaced in 2019 and played firm and fast in 2020. In 2021, the course was hit by rain prior to the start of the tournament and the greens were soft and slow. In 2022, they were average in speed and firmness. This is the first time we will see the greens at Memorial Park in March, but if we can use the Valero Texas Open as a guide, they will likely be average in speed and firmness again in 2024. Instead of the dormant Bermuda grass, the surface is dominated by the Poa trivialis overseed this time of year. The greens seem to be the main defense of the course; the greens themselves have some slope and undulations, but they are also surrounded by false fronts, slopes, and tightly mowed grass that will repel arrant approach shots and create tricky chips. During a press conference a few years ago, Dustin Johnson called the greens ‘severe.’ They’re also protected by bunkers and water on two holes.
With wide fairways, short rough, and little trouble overall, golfers are not too concerned about missing the fairway, and prefer to get a little extra distance with their driver over clubbing down and staying in the fairway. Last year, Driving Accuracy was below the tour average at 56% (34th of 47; average was 62.1%), but Driving Distance was above the tour average (290.2 yards; 11th of 34; average was 284.9). Despite being average in speed and firmness, the greens were still difficult to hold on approach and Greens in Regulation was below the tour average (62.7%; 31st of 47; average was 66.2%). Tight lies around the green also make scrambling difficult (56.2%; 34th of 47; average was 58.5%). Despite the lack of obvious trouble, any misstep, whether it is off the tee, on approach, or around the green, can quickly lead to bogey or worse.
The Course Table on DataGolf suggests that most of difficulty at Memorial Park is around the greens. According to DataGolf, it has been the fifth most difficult course around the greens and fourth most difficult course from the fairway around the green over the last five years. It also has the most difficult set of par 5s over the same time period, but that is it, there are no other statistics that fall in the top five in difficulty. Memorial Park is the fifth easiest from non-rough locations away from the fairway, giving further support to the idea that most of the trouble comes around the green.
The Weather
Whenever the PGA Tour is in Texas, we have to pay close attention to the weather as high winds tend to be the norm. stacks. As of now, the winds are forecasted to be light on Thursday, but they could be 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph the rest of the time. If the wind ticks up at all, we may have to look for wind specialists and potential wave stacks. There is a little rain in the forecast on Monday, but Houston has had a dry spring overall; I expect the course to play firm and fast, but we should wait to see what the reports from the practice rounds are saying.
DFS Strategy
Memorial Park Golf Course has proven to be one of the more difficult challenges on tour in the brief time that the Houston Open has been played there.
Even though the tournament has moved from November to March, I don’t think the overall complexion of the course is going to change much. First of all, the course saw both slow and receptive conditions and fast and firm conditions in November, and the course was always one of the most difficult courses on tour. It has also seen light winds and high winds without much change in the difficulty. Ryegrass rough is easier to play from than bermudagrass rough, but golfers will still have long irons in their hands, and they are never easy from the rough regardless of the grass type. And Poa trivialis might be an easier surface to putt on than Bermuda, but much of the difficulty on the greens comes from the slope and undulation. I think the course may play slightly easier due to the change in grass types, but it will still be one of the more difficult courses on tour.
The course is long, so golfers will be trying to get everything they can off of the tee. They will need to be precise with their irons, especially from long range, if they want to keep their approach shots on the greens. They also need a tidy short game and be able to make putts on Poa trivialis to avoid dropped shots when they do miss the greens. With only four genuinely good scoring opportunities, they need to be able take advantage of those opportunities and avoid any bogeys when the ball does not bounce their way. Proficiency in the wind will be helpful too.
As usual, I will start my process by building my course fit model and putting together Recent Form and Course History spreadsheets. I will use my model to target golfers that are that are long and straight off the tee, strong on approach, especially with their long irons, can still hit the green if they miss the fairways, are good around the greens, and are comfortable putting on Poa trivialis.
With just a few years of data from Memorial Park, and the changes that will come due to its new spot on the schedule, it is hard to rely too heavily on Course History. It is a tough course though, so I am still interested in rostering golfers that have managed the challenges before. I will look at past results and give an edge to golfers with some success and avoid anybody that has struggled at the course. We can only go back to 2020 for data, the first year the tournament was played at Memorial Park.
Here is the top ten in Course History from my One-and-Done tool:
Here are the course fit statistics I will use (all last 100 rounds):
Off-the-tee:
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee: A staple in model week after week. I will use a second off-the-tee statistic to home in on the type of golfer that I am targeting. I will look at this statistic on courses that are over 7,400 yards. I have to admit that I am a little torn on my off-the-tee statistics and thought about going with Total Driving instead.
Good Drives Gained: A couple of years ago, I ran a correlation of Strokes Gained: Total with the suite of statistics available on Fantasy National and found Good Drives Gained was the most correlated. It makes sense on a course with below average Driving Accuracy; the golfers that are most accurate or can at least make a good approach from the rough should be the most the successful. I will look at this statistic on courses that are over 7,400 yards.
Approach:
Strokes Gained: Approach: A staple in my model week after week. I will look at this statistic on courses that are over 7,400 yards.
Opportunities Gained: Since Greens in Regulation is lower on this course than the tour average, I will be looking for golfers that excel in this aspect of the game, especially for golfers that can put it close and give themselves looks at birdie. I will look at this statistic on courses that are over 7,400 yards.
Proximity 200+ yards: Over 25% of approach shots will come from beyond 200 yards, golfers will need to be good with their long irons if they hope to contend.
Around-the-Green:
Strokes Gained: Around the green: Since Greens in Regulation and Scrambling are below the tour average, not only will I include this statistic in my model, but I will give these statistics a little bump in weight.
Putting:
Strokes Gained: Putting: Another staple in my model, I will switch up the surface as needed. This week, I will be looking for Poa trivialis specialists. The other courses on tour with this type of surface are TPC Scottsdale, PGA West Stadium Course (the other American Express courses have it too but we don’t get statistics from them), TPC San Antonio, and TPC at Sawgrass (these courses are all usually listed as Bermuda with Poa trivialis overseed, but the Bermuda is dormant when the PGA Tour comes around). This is the same grass type we have been seeing recently throughout the Florida swing.
Scoring:
Bogey Avoidance: Doak and Koepka have designed the course to put big numbers into play if golfers start getting sloppy on approach shots, or if risk/reward shots go wrong. I want to roster golfers that are good at avoiding those big numbers.
Par 5 Scoring: With limited scoring opportunities on the course, golfers will need to take advantage of the par 5s if they want to stay in the mix on Sunday.
Strokes Gained: Total on difficult courses: Some golfers excel on easy courses, while other golfers seem to step up their game when they are at difficult courses. This week, we are looking for the latter.
After running my model, the statistics that I will be looking at during the sniff test to help make my determinations are Par 3 Scoring, Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards, Driving Distance, and Strokes Gained: Total in the Wind.
There are five par 3s at Memorial Park, golfers will need to hold their own, and possibly steal a few birdies (one of the par 3 played below par last season), on them if they want to stay in contention.
A couple of the best scoring opportunities are the short par 4s (400-450 yards). I want to make sure I am rostering golfers that are good at these distances.
I think a little extra driving distance will provide an advantage at Memorial Park, but not so much that we need to rule out anybody that is not a bomber. I will take a look at Driving Distance when making tough decisions between golfers, giving an edge to the longer hitter.
The weather forecast indicates that the winds may be up for most of the tournament. I will bring up the Strokes Gained: Total in the wind statistics in case I need to target the wind specialists.
I will also build a model that includes statistics that are only available using The Rabbit Hole on Betsperts.com. This model will include Strokes Gained: Off the Tee on Driver Heavy Courses, Strokes Gained: Approach on Long Courses, Strokes Gained: Around the Green with Difficult Scrambling from Short Grass, Strokes Gained: Putting on Poa trivialis, Strokes Gained Total on Difficult Courses, and Strokes Gained: Total on Texas Courses. Keep in mind that I am still trying to wrap my head around all of the filters available in The Rabbit Hole, and these statistics may change.
Turning to the Roster Construction Matrix, we have a difficult course category, and the strength of field is a little below average, but it still falls in the low end of the medium strength category. According to the matrix, we should be using a stars-and-scrubs roster construction. Previous editions of the Houston Open lend some support to this idea. Although Carlos Ortiz and Jason Kokrak are not necessarily upper echelon talent, Tony Finau is and Scottie Scheffler, Dustin Johnson, and Hideki Matsuyama have all been runners-up at Memorial Park, suggesting that the course is difficult enough for the top golfers to distinguish themselves, and pay off their high-end DFS salary.
As always, we should be on the lookout for ways to get leverage on our opponents. We will start in the same two places we start our search for leverage every week, then move onto to other ways to get leverage specific to this tournament. The first is the ownership projections, where we will try to identify the chalk, and then look for good pivots off the chalk. The next place we should look is in the pricing; identify golfers that are priced too low and consider fading them because they will likely be over-owned and identify the golfers that are priced too high and give them consideration because the DFS community will try to avoid them.
If we assume that the star-and-scrubs roster construction is the proper way to go this week, it should also be the most popular build. That means the balanced roster construction is the pivot, and we can get leverage on the field if we build these kinds of lineups. I also think the super stars-and-scrubs lineups may be worth a look. The strength of field is at the low-end of medium strength category, so it is a little weak overall; our DFS opponents may not think there is enough fire power available to them to try to fill out a super stars-and-scrubs lineup. If you are looking to get different through roster construction, I would recommend building some super stars-and-scrubs lineups to see if you like the results.
I also think that our DFS opponents are going to see the yardage of Memorial Park and assume that they have to target the bombers. The bombers have undoubtedly enjoyed success here, but plodders like Kramer Hickok, Joel Dahmen, and Mackenzie Hughes have also had success. We should be able to get some leverage by getting a couple of the plodders into our player pools.
One of the narratives that you will hear this week (most likely from Kenny Kim, on the Fantasy Golf Degenerates podcast) is that Houston has been a hotbed of Korean golf since K.J. Choi settled there. Any Korean golfer in the field has probably spent time in the area and may have played the course. They may see an uptick in ownership and if they get too steamed up you may want to avoid them, but you may also want to add them to your player pool if they pop in your model.
Finally, I will be using 100% of my usual bankroll. I mentioned that I started dabbling in cash games again, but that was short-lived and I am completely focused on GPPs again.
That’s all I have for now, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@glzisk) for any updates.
Have a great week!