Good morning, Fringe readers!
This week I finally got to try out a strategy I had been hoping to implement for a while now, the right conditions just never popped up.
Since we follow the weather so closely, I’ve always wanted to try to use any perceived wave advantage in Showdown contests. This past Thursday at the Travelers it looked like the early starters would have a clear advantage over the later starters, so I pressed that advantage in a First Round Showdown contest and it worked.
Some DFS players either ignore or don’t factor the weather into their lineups decisions, and that can give us an edge. Next time we identify a clear advantage during a single round, I recommend giving Showdown a try (I want to see a very distinct advantage during a round, any ambiguity could blow up in our face). As long as our opponents aren’t identifying the edge, it’s a good opportunity to pad the bankroll.
The Past
Congratulations to garysavoy on winning the $100K Birdie for the U.S. Open Championship with 429 points.
The winning lineup was a stars-and-scrubs lineup led by Scottie Scheffler. With Scheffler priced up to $14.4k, it was impossible to build a standard stars-and-scrubs lineup with him in it. To make the lineup work, they skipped the 9k range and rostered one golfer from the 8k range, one from the 7k range, and three from the 6k range. The lineup had the winner, J.J. Spaun, the third-place finisher, two seventh-place finishers, and two golfers that finished in the top 20.
Their margin of victory was 8.5 points.
The winning lineups for the other contests I look at each week (the Millionaire Maker, the Drive the Green, and the Short Game) were all similar variations of the stars-and-scrubs build with Scottie Scheffler. The winner of the Short Game, though, had four 6k golfers instead of a 7k golfer like the other lineups. The only other player common among all four lineups was J.J. Spaun.
Among the lineups finishing in the top ten of the Birdie, nine of them were stars-and-scrubs lineups led by Scottie Scheffler. The other lineup in the top ten was a super stars-and-scrubs lineup led by Xander Schauffle and Jon Rahm. The winner, J.J. Spaun, was the only golfer that appeared in all of the top ten lineups.
There was also a four-way tie for third place with a duplicated lineup.
Cumulative ownership for the winning lineup was 71.93%, right in the middle of the range I typically recommend (60-80%). They still managed to keep their cumulative ownership in range, despite rostering Scottie Scheffler at 36.03%, by rostering three golfers under 6%, including Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson. A sub-10% Viktor Hovland also proved to be a valuable pivot play.
The cumulative ownership of the winning lineup is unexpectedly low considering the last two winners of the Birdie for the U.S. Open were over 95%. The tournament played out the opposite of how we’ve seen in the past; usually the high-priced chalk performs well and the low-priced chalk struggle. This year, most of the high-end chalk got crushed. Bryson DeChambeau and Ludvig Aberg missed the cut up top and every one of the golfers in the 7k and 8k on my Chalk Report missed the cut or withdrew. On the other end, only one chalk golfer from the 5k and 6k range combined missed the cut and Robert Macintyre and Cameron Young finished in the top five.
Cumulative ownership among the top ten lineups ranged from 67.85% to 88.01%. There were six lineups that fell within the recommended range and four that fell outside of it. The four lineups outside of the range were the four lineups that the tied for third place and, fittingly, they were the only lineups that were to the high side (88.01%). The rest of the lineups all finished within the range and none of them were above 72%. I expected cumulative ownerships of the winning lineups to be higher because the chalk usually performs well at the U.S. Open, but as I explained above, that just wasn’t the case this year.
The player pool for the winner was once again much bigger than I aim for, but unlike last week, I am not as comfortable with the structure of this pool. Last week, much of the player pool consisted of one-offs and two-offs, and if you consolidated those plays into a few golfers, the size of the pool would have been much more to my liking. The winner this week had 20 lineups with 38 golfers in their pool but fewer one-offs and two-offs. If you consolidated their one-offs and two-offs into a few golfers, their pool is still much bigger than I like to see (I try to aim for 20 golfers with a few one-offs). They also didn’t really have much of a core group of golfers and took more of a scattershot approach.
Their highest-owned golfer, in 40% of their 20 lineups, was Scottie Scheffler. Their next highest owned golfer was Hideki Matsuyama in 30% of their lineups. They then had four golfers in 25% of lineups, ten golfers in 20%, and eight golfers in 15%. They then had eight two-offs and six one-offs. With a core group of golfers, if you get the core right, then you have multiple shots at putting together a winning lineup. With the scatter-shot approach, since there isn’t much overlap between lineups, you’re just hoping for one of the combinations to work out. It worked this time around, but I wouldn’t recommend it as a long-term play. I kind of like it for the U.S. Open though; because the U.S. Open is played on difficult courses that can take anybody out (just see the Chalk Report), you are taking on a lot of risk if you get overexposed to a few golfers. Of course, with a tight core, if you get it right, you are in good shape, but a difficult course like Oakmont is much more unpredictable and you’re just as likely to have a short week.
Of their 20 lineups, fourteen were stars-and-scrubs, two were super stars-and-scrubs, and four were balanced.
Their distribution of golfers by price range was a bit peculiar, particularly at the extremes. They rostered every golfer in the 10k+ range. We usually see DFS players go with a few of the options up top, but not all of them. They then had two golfers from the 9k range, four from the 8k range, and ten golfers from the 7k range: all pretty standard. They then had 16 golfers from the 6k range, but just one golfer from the 5k range. That is a lot more golfers than we usually see from the lowest range, where most DFS players will just go with a few options.
Of their 20 lineups, 13 of them were in the 60-80% range. Their cumulative ownership ranged from 63.16% to 106.92%. After that one lineup with 106.92% ownership, their next highest cumulative ownership was 89.92%. In The Fringe last weekend, I wrote that I would be aiming for 80% cumulative ownership because the chalk usually performs well at the U.S. Open, so I don’t mind the six lineups that we 80%-89%. The lineup that went over 100% is a little problematic. While the chalk usually performs well at the U.S. Open, at some point you have to worry about being duplicated. The way the chalk ended up performing, it might come as little surprise that the one lineup over 100% was also their worst performing lineup with Bryson, Joaquin, and Shane Lowry all missing the cut as the chalk of their range.
Of the seventeen golfers on the slate that I considered the chalk, garysavoy rostered ten golfers that were the chalk of their range. The only chalk land mines that they missed were Ludvig Aberg and Matt McCarty but remember that they didn’t have huge exposure to any one golfer. While they did eat a bunch of the bad chalk, none of them hurt too badly because they were only in a few lineups.
Overall, they had six golfers in their pool that were above 20% ownership. They then had seven golfers between 15-20%, three golfers between 10-15%, thirteen golfers between 5-10%, and nine golfers under 5%.
Even though I don’t agree with the strategy implemented by garysavoy, I do see how it is a good strategy for a tournament as difficult as the U.S. Open. There were a lot of complaints on social media about the leaderboard because many well-known golfers missed the weekend and not much of the high-end talent contended for the championship. But that is what a course like Oakmont can do; even if the best golfers in the world are just slightly off their game, it will eat them up too. The scattershot approach spreads that risk out, while someone like me was done for the week when Bryson DeChambeau and Shane Lowry missed the cut.
And, of course, the strategy worked. They had eight lineups get across the payline. No other lineups were in the top thousand, however, but I’m sure garysavoy was happy with the $10,000 the winning lineup earned them.
The Future
The PGA Tour is going to the northern Midwest for a two week stay before taking off to the British Isles for two weeks. They will start in Motor City for the Rocket Classic at Detroit Golf Club before heading to Iowa.
The Rocket Classic is one of the newer tournaments on tour at one of the oldest courses on tour. It had been known as the Rocket Mortgage Classic since its origin, but the name was changed as part of a bigger rebranding project by the title sponsor.
The tournament made its first appearance in 2019, when it replaced the Quicken Loans National on the PGA schedule. It has quickly earned the reputation of being a birdie fest with winning scores bettering -20 in all but two years. In 2021 and 2024, the course was hit with 20+ mph winds, but scores still hit -18.
During its brief history, the tournament has always been played at the same location, but it has moved around on the calendar. The first three editions were played in late June/early July. The tournament was then moved to the end of July in 2022, serving as the penultimate event of the season. It then moved back to its usual spot in 2023.
Veteran-grinder Nate Lashley (-25) won the first edition after getting into the field as the third alternate. Bryson DeChambeau (-23) overpowered the course to take the trophy in the 2020 edition played without any fans in attendance. In 2021, Cam Davis (-18) prevailed in a playoff over Joaquin Niemann and Troy Merritt. In 2022, Tony Finau (-26) routed the course and the field, winning by five strokes over Patrick Cantlay, Taylor Pendrith, and Cameron Young.
Two years ago, Rickie Fowler put his approach shot on his 72nd hole within three feet of the cup and made an easy birdie to put him in a tie for the lead at -24 with Adam Hadwin and Collin Morikawa (cutline was -4; median score for cut makers was -11). On the first playoff hole, Rickie again put his approach shot close to the cup for a look at birdie. After Hadwin and Morikawa failed to put their third shot in the hole, Ricky nailed his 12-foot putt to get his first win since the 2019 WM Phoenix Open.
Last year, Aaron Rai and Akshay Bhatia were tied for the lead at -17 going into the final round with Cameron Young and Cam Davis one stroke back. The winds then picked up for the final round and kept the scoring to down. The leaders, Rai and Bhatia, were both even par on the day. Cameron Young broke the shaft of his driver on the 14th hole and then bogeyed twice on his way home to finish the day over par. Cam Davis birdied the par-5 17th hole to get to -18 and pull into a tie for the lead with Akshay Bhatia. Bhatia failed to birdie the late par 5 and then three-putted from 32 feet to drop a shot and give Cam Davis his second win in Detroit and on tour (cutline: -4; median score for cutmakers: -9).
The field
As a filler event between majors, the Rocket Classic has never drawn awe-inspiring fields; not the worst, but not the best either. Even as a last-minute tune-up for the playoffs a few years ago, the strength of field didn’t improve. Two years ago, the field maintained its customary position towards the middle of the pack with a strength of field at 244 (24th strongest of 47; average was 268).
Last year, the strength of field was 238.6 (29th strongest of 44; average was 275.6).
The field is set for 156 golfers with four open qualifiers and three sponsor exemption yet to be determined. The winner of the John Shippen National Invitational Golf Tournament will earn one of the sponsor exemptions.
The strength of the field should see a considerable uptick this year. Last year, the highest ranked golfer in the field, according to the OWGR, was Cameron Young at 23. This year, there are five golfers inside the top 25 in OWGR: Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Ben Griffin, Patrick Cantlay, and Keegan Bradley. Cam Davis is also back to defend his title.
Here is a link to the full field.
Course Description
The Detroit Golf Club dates back to 1899 when it opened as a 6-hole course. Donald Ross began working on the property in 1913, and in 1916 the club was expanded to its current 36-hole design separated into the North and South Course.
Prior to the founding of the Rocket Classic, no professional golf had been played at Detroit Golf Club. The only events of significance the course had hosted was the 1911 Western Amateur and the 1992 U.S. Mid-Amateur.
Throughout the 2010’s, the club worked to bring the courses up to the standards of the PGA Tour. There was a large renovation led by Bruce Hepner that restored the greens and bunkers, lengthened the course, and brought back elements of the original Donald Ross design.
Ahead of the 2023 edition of the Rocket Classic, the greens on holes 11 and 12 were completely resodded after they were vandalized just one month before the event.
The course is currently in the midst of a large renovation project. Ahead of the tournament, a new storm drainage system was installed, new pumping stations were constructed, and a new mainline irrigation system was installed. The GCSAA Tournament Fact Sheet also indicates that some trees have been removed. Once the tournament is over, the greens, bunkers, and tee boxes on the North Course will all be redone.
The course used for tournament play is a 7,370-yard, par-72, classical resort design. By par, it is the 29th longest course on tour (out of the 48 courses I’ve done the calculations for). Last year, it was the 32nd most difficult course on tour (out of the 43 courses that are ranked by DataGolf).
The course played during the tournament is technically a composite, but only one hole from the South Course is included in the routing. The 8th hole and 9th of the North course serve as the first two holes. The 3rd hole is the 1st hole from the South course, but it uses the tee box from the 1st hole on the North Course. The rest of the front nine is holes 2 through 7 and the regular back nine is the back nine for the tournament.
It is a standard par-72 course with four par 3s, ten par 4s and four par 5s. The par 5s are the best scoring opportunities on the course. Three of the par-5s are reachable in two; the fourth par 5 is over 600 yards and will require three good shots to make birdie, but it still gives them up over 31% of the time. There are four par-4s that are under 400 yards in length, two between 400 and 450 yards, and four between 450 and 500 yards. All four of the par 4s over 450 yards played above par last year. Two of the par-3s are under 170 yards and play below par, and the other two are over 200 yards and play above par.
Here is the official scorecard for 2025:
Off the tee, golfers will see wide tree-lined fairways (35 yards wide at the 300-yard mark). According to the GCSAA Tournament Fact Sheet, the fairways are 30 yards wide. Even if we take the GCSAA number, they are still among the widest fairways on tour. The rough is a bluegrass mix that is kept at 4 inches in length. The fairways are a mix of bentgrass and Poa annua. There are bunkers in the landing areas, and water on one hole (but it mainly serves to protect the green). The trees are pushed back from the fairway on most of the holes and should only be an issue on the most wayward drives, but there are some narrow chutes and a few instances of overhanging trees crowding the fairway and requiring some shot shaping. The course is one of the flattest on tour with only 12m of difference between the highest and lowest points. The 18th hole features a drainage ditch that runs along the left side of the fairway, crosses the fairway, and runs along the right side of the green; it shouldn’t be much of an issue, but it is considered a penalty area.
On approach, golfers will be hitting into small (5,150 sq. ft.), receptive greens that feature the back to front pitch characteristic of Donald Ross designs. The surface is a mix of bentgrass and Poa annua. They are protected by bunkers, false fronts, and run-offs into collection areas. The bunkers don’t provide much protection as they are situated to the sides of most greens, leaving the fronts open. The only water on the course comes into play at the 14th green. The greens are elevated and are multi-tiered and contoured with lots of undulation, meaning golfers will have to be accurate on the approach if they want to make birdies. I have seen the speed of the greens listed as 10.5 to 12.5 on the stimp meter (10.5 being slow and 12.5 being relatively fast). The discrepancy comes from the fact that the hot, dry conditions of summertime in the Midwest forces the grounds crew to water the greens between rounds. The greens start out soft and slow, but get firmer and faster throughout the day, so they are quick when the TV broadcast starts. The Poa also gets bumpier as the days go on, conferring a natural advantage for the AM waves. With greens that are sloped back to front, can run fast, and have subtle breaks to them, golfers will want to do their best to put their approach below the hole.
Since the tournament usually turns into a birdie fest, the greens at Detroit Golf Club are the biggest factor determining the outcome of the tournament. The long rough, however, is the main defense of the course, but compared to other courses on tour, hitting the fairways has been easy to average (Driving Accuracy was 65.5% last year; 15th of 44 courses; average was 62.7%). And it’s not because golfers are electing to club down to hit the fairway, Driving Distance last year was 295.6 yards (6th of 35 courses; average was average was 286.3 yards). The greens are also relatively easy to hit, Greens in Regulation last year was 72.6% (7th of 44 courses, average is 66.7%). If a golfer is unfortunate enough to miss a green, they shouldn’t have too much trouble saving par (Scrambling Percentage was 61.8% last year, 12th of 44 courses, average was 58.8%). With easy to hit fairways and greens, the Rocket Classic should come down to a putting contest.
The DataGolf Course Table highlights just how friendly Detroit Golf Club can be. Over the last five years, it has had the sixth easiest set of par 3s and the fourth easiest set of par 4s of the courses on tour this year. It has also been the fourth easiest course overall. Detroit Golf Club was also the seventh easiest course for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, the fifth easiest on Strokes Gained: Approach, and is the fifth easiest on approach from over 150 yards. It also has the fourth highest Greens in Regulation percentage. There also isn’t much of a penalty for mistakes; it has the sixth lowest Missed Fairway Penalty and fourth lowest penalty strokes per round.
Weather
In most years, the weather conditions for the tournament are hot and dry, to the point that there is a lot of roll out in the fairways and the greens have to be watered. In the 2021 edition of the tournament, there were rains during the tournament that softened the greens, but there were also high winds to keep scoring down. Two years ago, there was rain during the week leading up to the tournament and rain over the weekend, so much so that the final round was started early to get all the golf in before inclement weather could stop play. Last year, we saw periods of 20 mph gusts and scoring was down off its usual highs.
As of now, it looks like the wind will top out at 10-15 mph with slightly strong gusts. Temperatures will hit the 90s each day with mostly sunny skies. There is rain in the forecast for most of Wednesday, Thursday night, and for brief periods on Friday morning and Sunday morning. Conditions look good for scoring and could possibly setup a small wave advantage.
DFS Strategy
Unless the wind plays an outsized role at the Rocket Classic, the tournament tends to devolve into a putting contest. Putting contests can be difficult to predict from a DFS standpoint. Unlike difficult courses that are unpredictable because a bad hole or two can knock golfers out of the tournament, easy courses are unpredictable because they don’t knock anybody out of the tournament (Detroit Golf Club has one of the lowest amounts of penalty strokes on tour). They even the playing field for the less talented golfers. Everybody hits the fairways and greens, so it comes down to who is putting the best. High-end talent can be solid from tee-to-green but play themselves out of the tournament with poor putting while the guys that usually struggle from tee-to-green can find themselves in contention by getting hot with the putter.
The chalk has also had mixed experiences at the Rocket Classic. Some of the chalk usually performs very well. Cumulative ownerships for winning lineups over the past few years have been at or above 80%. Some of the chalk always struggles though with some notable names missing the cut each year. Sometimes they just have an off week, and other times they just don’t putt well enough to keep up.
Due to the fact that this tournament can turn into an unpredictable putting contest, and that some of the chalk usually blows up, I think it’s acceptable to hold back some bankroll this week (I’m not, but I think I just made a good case for it).
The Rocket Classic is one of those run-of-the-mill events that I alluded to last week. DraftKings will still run its full slate of contests; double-ups, 50/50s, single-entry contests, GPPs, the Fantasy Golf World Championships qualifiers, and Millionaire Maker qualifiers, but the GPPs will be smaller. If they are too small for your liking, you can always find a bigger contest (unless you’re already in the biggest contest). Check the lobby early in the week so you can come up with a new plan if necessary.
Once you have decided which contests you will be playing in, we need to decide how much leverage we want and how we’re going to get that leverage.
Looking at the results from the last couple of years, cumulative ownerships of winning lineups are usually around 80%, but there are a few instances of them being over 90%. I think we should aim for 70%-90% in our GPPs (you can go a little higher in your cash games), which isn’t a lot of leverage.
We have two pathways we can go down to get the leverage we need; we can make sure to roster some low-end golfers to balance the chalk or we can get leverage through roster construction like I’ve been writing about the past two weeks. The former will likely keep your lineups under 80%, while the latter will probably have them above 80%. Either seems to be a viable option, though.
As always, we have the same two places we turn to for leverage every week. The first is the ownership projections, where we will try to identify the chalk and then look for good pivots off the chalk. We can then look at the pricing; identify golfers that are priced too low and consider fading them because they will likely be over-owned and identify the golfers that are priced too high and give them consideration because the DFS community will try to avoid them.
I also think PGA DFS players will see DeChambeau, Davis, and Finau on the short list of winners at the Rocket Mortgage and try to target the bombers this week. The plodders will likely go overlooked, but Nate Lashley was able to get a win here. They will have to depend more on their mid-irons than the bombers will, so check their proximity numbers from the longer distances if you are considering any of them.
PGA DFS players will also see the winning scores and target the birdie makers and rostering a grinder or two can get you some leverage. If a golfer doesn’t perform well in the Scoring statistics, but seems to fit the course otherwise, check their results at other birdie fests and see if they have ever contended when scores were low.
If you want to get leverage through roster construction, you have a few other options as well. DFS players tend to go with stars-and-scrubs lineups most of the time. I think we can get leverage by building balance lineups, and considering the type of course and strength of field, they could be a viable option on their own this week.
If you still want to build stars-and-scrubs lineups, you can get leverage by building non-standard versions of the stars-and-scrubs lineup like we’ve discussed the past couple of weeks. By switching up the roster construction, you are more likely to put together a unique combination of golfers. An easy way to do this is by simply skipping one of the salary ranges.
The third way to build unique combinations using roster construction is by using less than the total salary available to you. Most DFS players will try to use all of their available salary, or at least most of it. By leaving some salary on the table, you’re also likely to be putting together unique combinations.
Once you’ve decided which contests you want to play and how you’re going to get leverage, you can start thinking about roster construction. So, turning to the Roster Construction Matrix, we have a medium strength field on an easy course. The matrix points us towards a balanced build. There are at least a couple legitimate stars in the field though, so I would give the stars a good look before settling on a roster construction. With the caliber of stars in the field this year, I think both roster constructions are viable. While the stars-and-scrubs lineups usually win, a super stars-and-scrubs lineup has won at the Rocket Mortgage before. I’ll have to see what the 6k options look like before considering a super stars-and-scrubs build, but I doubt it will be enough for me to go that way.
My plan this week is to stick to my usual bankroll and focus on GPP contests, probably three-entry and single-entry contests. I would usually play some 50/50s at the lower-tier events but the unpredictable nature of a putting contest rules them out for me. I’ll probably have an even split between stars-and-scrubs lineups and balanced lineups, but that could change if I see anything odd about the pricing. I’ll play all the chalk that I like without concern for cumulative ownership but will make sure to mix in some low-owned plays.
Now that we have a plan for the week, we can focus on the type of golfers we will target.
I’ve mentioned that the Rocket Classic will most likely turn into a putting contest a few times. Putting, however, is volatile and hard to predict, however. Even the worst putters can find their stroke and roll the rock well for four rounds. And even the best putters can have an off week. The best we can do is try to find golfers that can position themselves to win a putting contest.
It’s a putting contest that anybody can compete in, however. Bombers can bomb and gouge their way around Detroit, but it’s not so long that the plodders can’t keep up. So, I am going to take a dual-pronged approach to building my player pool. On one side, I will try to identify the best ballstrikers and hope they have a good week putting. The other side is identifying the best putters in the field and then confirming that they are capable of occasionally ballstriking well. Of course, if we identify any golfers that are good ballstrikers and good putters, we should try to get as much exposure to them as we can.
As usual, I will start my process by building my course fit model and putting together a Recent Form and Course History spreadsheet. I will primarily use my model to target golfers that are strong off-the-tee, particularly with their driver, are precise with their short irons, and comfortable putting on the bentgrass/Poa mix. I will also use it to identify golfers that will score well enough to contend in a birdie fest.
Course History is not very predictive at Detroit Golf Club, according to DataGolf, but I am going to look at Course History anyway. I will only use it, however, to identify any golfers that seem to love playing in Detroit. We only have six years of results to work with, so trends are just starting to emerge. If a golfer performs well in my model and has had superior results, I’ll certainly be interested in getting them in my player pool. I’m not going to let poor performances or lack of experience dissuade me from rostering anybody though. Tony Finau won with his only previous result being a T53, and Cam Davis won after missing two straight cuts in Detroit.
Here are the course fit statistics that I will use (last 100 rounds):
Off-the-tee:
Good Drives Gained: Success at the Rocket Mortgage will start with getting the ball in the fairway. It may not be the most difficult course to hit fairways at, but I don’t want to roster golfers that tend to spray it all over the place. If they do spray it a little, I at least want to know that they are effective at hitting the green from the rough.
Driving Distance: Detroit Golf is short for a par-72 course, but extra distance will help golfers by getting shorter irons into their hands and allowing for more accurate approach shots.
Approach:
Strokes Gained: Approach: A staple in my model week after week; on a course that demands accuracy on the approach, these statistics will continue to be the most heavily weighted statistics in my model. I will look at this statistic on courses 7,200-7,400 yards.
Opportunities Gained: Golfers are going to have to go low to contend at the Rocket Mortgage, the best way to do that is by putting your approach shots close enough to the hole to give yourself a good look at birdie. I will look at this statistic on courses 7,200-7,400 yards.
Proximity 75-150 yards: Almost 45% of approach shots will come from this range; golfers better be dialed in with their wedges and short irons if they want to stay in the mix this week.
Putting:
Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass/Poa annua: Putting is another staple in my model; I will switch up the surface as needed. This week, I’ll be looking for golfers that excel on a bentgrass/Poa annua mix. To do this, I will look at Strokes Gained: Putting at TPC River Highlands, Detroit Golf Club, Silverado Resort and Spa, TPC Toronto, and Oakdale Golf and Country Club.
Scoring
Strokes Gained: Total on Easy Courses: Some golfers tend to perform better on difficult courses where they must grind out pars, and other golfers perform better at courses that yield a lot of birdies (and some just perform well everywhere). I want to roster the latter this week.
Birdies or Better Gained: Continuing the trend of golfers having to go low this week to contend, I want to roster golfers with a history of making a lot of birdies. I will look at this statistic at easy courses.
Par 5 Scoring: Whenever we have a course with four par 5s, I’ll include this statistic in my model. Par 5s are usually the best opportunities to score, and if there are four of them, golfers better be able to take advantage of them if they want to keep up.
After building my model, I usually have a few other statistics that I will at look at to help make my determinations. This week, I will look at SG: Putting, Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards, Proximity 200+ yards, and SG: Total on Donald Ross Courses.
As I mentioned above, part of my process this week is going to be identifying the best putters in the field and then confirming that they possess the skills to allow their putting to shine through. One of the first things that I will do this week is make note of the best putters in the field, I will then keep those names in mind as I continue with the rest of my process.
There are four par 4s under 400 yards at Detroit Golf Club. Whether laying back to a specific number or bombing it as close to the green as you can, these types of holes take a unique talent that can be rewarding.
With four par 5s and two par 3s over 200 yards, just over 20% of approach shots will come from over 200 yards. I’ll give preference to golfers that check other boxes but can also manage approaches from long range.
Like Pete Dye courses, there are just some golfers that tend to perform well at Donald Ross courses. I want to give those golfers a little extra bump this week.
I will also build a model that includes statistics that are only available using The Rabbit Hole on Betsperts.com. For the Rocket Classic, I am interested in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee on Driver-Heavy Courses, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee at Courses with Low Missed Fairway Penalty, Carry Distance, Strokes Gained: Approach on Course with High Greens in Regulation Accuracy, Proximity 50-100 yards, Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green at Courses with Easy ARG Gained, Strokes Gained: Putting on Poa/Bent, Strokes Gained: Total on Easy/Very Easy Courses, Birdie or Better Gained at Easy/Very Easy Courses, and Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage.
In short, I am looking for two types of golfers this week. My primary search will be for golfers that keep the ball in play off the tee with a preference towards the longer hitters, are strong with their wedges, putt well on Poa/bent greens, and can go low in a birdie fest. I’ll also be looking for the strongest putting in the field. The statistics that I will focus on to start my player pool are Good Drives Gained and Driving Distance, Proximity 75-150 yards, Strokes Gained: Putting, and Birdies or Better Gained. I will also focus on the analogues from my Rabbit Hole model.
That’s all I have for now, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@glzisk) for any updates.
Have a great week!
Hey Kevin, those numbers refer to the cumulative ownership of a lineup; just add the ownerships (or projected ownerships) of the golfers in your lineup together and it gives you the cumulative ownership. It's a simple measurement to give you a sense of how leveraged your lineup is (there are other measurements but this one is the easiest). I generally recommend a cumulative ownership of 60-80% to make sure you don't get duplicated by another DFS player; the popular golfers tend to perform well in Detroit so I adjusted my recommended range a little higher this week.
Hi Gabe, excuse my lack of knowledge, but what is meant by keeping your lineup @ 80% or between 70-90%? Help and tks for your work.