Remember, when we think about getting leverage, we’re trying to identify what other DFS players are going to do and use that information to our advantage. In general, we’re going to get highly-owned golfers into our cash games and lower-owned golfers into our GPPs. The names getting into our GPPs might make you squeamish, but differentiating yourself from the hoards is how to win these contests.
The plays/fades are for getting leverage in GPPs and do not necessarily reflect my opinion on a golfer, and may actually run contrary to my opinion.
I’m using DraftKings pricing.
The Plays and Fades were a disaster last week. I could come to you, hat in hand, try to explain what went wrong and say I’ll do better next time, but forget all that. I’m not going to try to do better; I’m going to continue to identify chalk plays and leverage spots and exploit them accordingly. They’re risky plays by nature that will blow up in my face from time to time. I could play it safe, but I’m not trying to cash in GPPs, I’m trying to win them; remember what Arnold Palmer said about hitting it through the trees.
Whether you won or lost last week, it’s time to move on and start thinking about the Shriners. It appears that DFSers are reveling in the stronger field; ownerships are spread pretty evenly throughout ranges because we have enough talent that DFSers aren’t focusing on one or two plays. There won’t be as obvious chalk plays and leverage spots up top, so we’ll have to get our leverage in the lower ranges.
10K+:
The chalk play and leverage spot are all relative in this range as it looks like everybody is going to be above 10% in ownership. Will Zalatoris will likely be the chalk of the range, but his ownership will probably be just over 15%. Brooks Koepka is your leverage play coming in at just over 10%; which, by my standards, isn’t getting you much leverage overall. Everybody else looks like they will be right around 15% owned, so all cash-game viable.
Play: I’m going with Brooks Koepka; there is a lot of talk about his lack of motivation at non-majors that’s keeping his ownership down, but I’m not buying it. I think he’s motivated to win, and the motivation comes into play if he’s not scoring on Thursday, then we could see him eject on Friday. So, I could be torching a bunch of my money here, but if he does play well, those lineups should be in a good spot. Brooks has been hit-or-miss at Summerlin, it’s been either top 5s or MCs.
Fade: It’s a talented group up top, so the fade is difficult to pick, but my fade is going to Sam Burns. He responded to his last win by coming in 2nd place in his next event, but he had a week off in between. This time, he’s jumping right back in the next week AND he’s in Vegas; I imagine he’ll do some celebrating this week and get his act together for The CJ Cup.
9K:
Another range where the chalk and the leverage spot will be relative. Everybody looks like they’ll be in the 10-15%-owned range, so all are cash-game viable. Sungjae Im and Louis Oosthuizen could be considered the chalk since they’ll come in closer to 15%, and Si Woo Kim will be the leverage play at 10% owned.
Play: My play is Si Woo Kim; he has impeccable course history, plays his best golf on easy courses, and bent is his best putting surface (it’s still bad, but it’s his best).
Fade: I’m a little worried about a let down from all of the U.S. Ryder Cup golfers (Scheffler and English are in this range), but my fade is going to be Louis Oosthuizen. He’s coming off a very successful season, but he kept talking about wanting to work on his new ranch. He’s probably spent much of the last four weeks working on said ranch and will need this tournament to get tuned up.
8K:
We finally start getting some separation in the 8k range. Corey Conners will be the chalk of the group, coming in at the 15-20% range. We also have a bunch of guys coming in the cash-game viable range: Paul Casey, Jason Kokrak, Cameron Tringale, Joaquin Niemann, Matthew Wolff, and Charley Hoffman. We also get some true GPP plays, with golfers coming in under 10%-owned: Patrick Reed, Adam Scott, and Erik Van Rooyen. Still not getting a true leverage play, however.
Play: I’m going with Adam Scott to try to get a little leverage; he’s been good with his irons lately, he can handle the wind if it gets windy, and he gained 4.9 strokes putting in his last visit to TPC Summerlin, so I’m hoping he’s comfortable on these greens.
Fade: It seems a little too easy, but Jason Kokrak sticks out in this range as being one of the only golfers that didn’t perform well in my model (the other is Matthew Wolff, but he’s performed well in his two visits to TPC Summerlin).
7K:
Mito Pereira is soaking up all the ownership in this range, and looks like the chalk of the slate again at 20% ownership. There are a few golfers that might break the 10% threshold for cash games: Russell Henley, Maverick McNealy, and Pat Perez. That means we have plenty of GPPs options in this range, but if you’re looking to get a lot of leverage, here are some sub-2% golfers: Danny Willett, Scott Stallings, Martin Laird, Rasmus Hojgaard, and Cameron Young.
Play: I might be chasing here, but I’m going with Joseph Bramlett in this spot. He should be right around 5%, he’s been playing well overall, but especially with his irons, and he made the cut in his only attempt at this course. Just have to pray he doesn’t putt terribly.
Fade: I’ll get my exposure to Mito by playing him in cash, so my fade is Maverick McNealy. I know a good number of touts are on him, but I think we prefer to play McNealy on small, Poa greens and TPC Summerlin has large, bent greens.
6K:
Not much love for the 6K range this week. Hank Lebioda looks like he’ll be the most-owned golfer in the group at 8%. A few golfers could get over 5%: Doug Ghim, Garrick Higgo, and Adam Hadwin. I don’t know if @PGATout is a market mover, but after he tweeted about Mark Hubbard, I saw a few other touts get on him too. I think Hubbard will get over 5% even though the projections that I am looking at have him lower.
Play: I am going to get a little exposure to Stephan Jaeger. He gains strokes on bentgrass greens, does his best work on easy/average courses, and was one of the best performers in model for this range.
Fade: I’m not quite sure where the high projected ownership for Lebioda is coming from. He’s been pretty bad lately, he’s never played in the Shriners, and he’s very middle-of-the-road when it comes to the stats that I’m looking at. Easy fade for me.
Have fun building lineups!