Remember, when we think about getting leverage, we’re trying to identify what other DFS players are going to do and use that information to our advantage. In general, we’re going to get highly-owned golfers into our cash games and lower-owned golfers into our GPPs. The names getting into our GPPs might make you squeamish, but differentiating yourself from the hoards is how to win these contests.
The plays/fades are for getting leverage in GPPs and do not necessarily reflect my opinion on a golfer, and may actually run contrary to my opinion.
I’m using DraftKings pricing.
Oh boy, what a cluster we have going on in Bermuda. So many golfers have withdrawn that there aren’t anymore golfers to fill out the field. I think my usual ownership projection providers are struggling to keep up with all the changes; the two sets of projections that I have show some wild disparities, while the third set I use is late publishing their set. Rest an assured, ownership projection comparison will be the subject of this week’s introduction to The Fringe (I use Fantasy National, Fanshare Sports, and Gup’s Corner, let me know if you have another set of projections you’d like to enter into the battle royale).
My first impression is that DFS players are going to try to cram in as many 9k+ golfers that they can into their lineups and cling to the familiar names in the lower ranges. Building balanced lineups should get you some leverage right out of the gate if this is the case.
10k+
DFS players are just going to keeping riding that Mito Pereira train until it goes off the tracks; he’s looking like the chalk of the slate. Matt Fitzpatrick could possibly take that honor too; both look like they’ll come in over 20%-owned. Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Seamus Power are also going to be chalky, but won’t quite hit the levels of the first two. Fanshare Sports has Patrick Reed coming in at just under 20%, but he’s not getting that many clicks on Fantasy National and is getting beat up by the touts, I think he’ll come in closer to 10%.
Play: I’m going with Patrick Reed. He’s one of, if not, the best golfers in this field and a wonky end to his season is keeping his ownership down. I get it, it makes me real nervous to roster Reed based off his recent results, but if he has turned a corner, he’s got a good shot at winning the tournament and will give us plenty of leverage.
Fade: I’m going to try to get off the Mito train before it comes to a disastrous end. I’m fully aware that we may have a superstar on our hands and the ride may never end, but at 10.5k, 20% ownership, and only coming in 41st in model, now is a good time to get off. I’ll probably get back on when his salary dips back down though.
9k:
Adam Hadwin is the chalk of this range, potentially coming in over 20% as well. Hayden Buckley, Chad Ramey, and Patrick Rodgers should be viable for cash games. Danny Willett and Taylor Pendrith look like they’ll be just under 10% and good for GPPs. Mattias Schwab looks like he’ll come in at 5%, and is your leverage play for the range.
Play: There are some new, shiny toys attracting a lot of attention in this range, but Mattias Schwab was actually one of the best performers in my model. He’s not a very exciting name, but if he can get me a little leverage from this range, it makes me feel better about playing the chalk elsewhere.
Fade: I want nothing to do with Patrick Rodgers. He ranked 80th in my model, and towards the bottom of the field in accuracy and Par 4s 350 to 450 yards in the length. I’d also fade Hadwin in GPPs, but he’s mostly likely going to be in my cash lineup, so not technically a fade.
7k:
Russell Knox will be the chalk of the range, and could potentially get 20% ownership. It looks like we have quite a few cash game options in this range: Nick Hardy, Mark Hubbard, Austin Eckroat, Hank Lebioda, Mathew NeSmith, Jason Dufner, Brian Stuard, Bo Hoag, and Kramer Hickock. That seems like too many names to be getting over 10% ownership, and I suspect some of them will come in lower. Everybody else in this range is good for GPPs, but here are some true leverage spots coming in with less the 5%: Peter Uihlein, Lucas Herbert, Dylan Frittelli, Greyson Sigg, Peter Malnati, Brandon Hagy, Sepp Straka, David Riley, and Ludvig Aberg.
Play: My leverage play for this range will be Greyson Sigg. He’s fairly accurate, 5th in the field on Par 4s 400-450 yards, and has a solid record in the wind. I just need him to find a putter.
Fade: I guess DFS players just can’t forget Hank Lebioda’s run over the summer, because they still want to roster him despite being terrible lately. He even has great course history, but I still want nothing to do with him. It’s kind of strange to go from three top 10s in a row to four missed cuts in a row, I’ll wait until it looks like he’s back to form.
6k:
It looks like a few golfers are going to get all of the ownership with Cameron Percy, Vaughn Taylor, and Chase Seifert coming in around 10% and Dawie Van der Walt, Camilo Villegas, Adam Svenson, and Austin Cook coming in at 5%. Everybody else in this range should get you plenty of leverage.
Play: I’m not that interested in anybody in the sub-5% ownership category, so my favorite leverage play for this range will be Dawie Van der Walt; he’s 10th in the field in Good Drives Gained and 11th in GIR (last 100 rounds), he performs well on the Par 4 ranges I’m interested in, and Bermudagrass is his best putting surface.
Fade: Of the three highest projected ownerships in the range, Chase Seifert was the worst performing in my model. He also missed the cut at the Bermuda last year. I’m playing chalkier golfers up top, so I’ll have to find leverage in this range; I know Seifert won’t be in my player pool and I’m not sure Percy or Taylor will be either (though I could see one of them getting into my cash lineup if I need salary relief).
Have fun building lineups!