I fear that I’m on the verge of tumbling down the rabbit hole on this one.
Thinking about getting leverage in my DFS lineups got me thinking about projected ownerships. Now I’m scrounging up any projections I can find and testing them against actual ownerships.
While going over the projected ownerships for the Sanderson Farms Championship, I noticed one of the websites had noticeably different projections for the 7k range on DraftKings. Naturally, I became interested in who got it right. When the contests locked, I downloaded the CSV for the $30k Dogleg and ran linear regressions to compare the performances of a few sets of projections.
(It’s been a long time since I was involved in statistical analysis; if I’m doing this wrong, please let me know. I’m happy to share my data with anybody interested in looking at it themselves).
The three websites in question are Fantasy National, Fanshare Sports, and Gup’s Corner. Overall, Fantasy National and Gup’s Corner did the best with Fanshare Sports lagging behind (sorry, I’m not reporting all the relevant test statistics, you’ll just have to take my word for it).
When it comes to my analysis of the 7k range projections, the result where similar to the overall results. Fantasy National was the best overall (RMSE=2.251, R2=0.446, p-value <0.05; see chart below), with Gup’s Corner a close second (RMSE=2.707, R2=0.346, p-value<0.05; see chart below). Fanshare Sports really struggled with this range (RMSE=2.409, R2=0.009, p-value=0.578; see chart below). I haven’t dug into yet, but I think the overall shortcomings of the Fanshare Sports projections can be explained by their issues with the 7k range.
So, what’s the takeaway? I think you have to be careful when relying on a single set of projections. This was my first time working with projections from Fanshare Sports, so I can’t tell you if this is common for the website, but ownership projections are as much art as they are science and mistakes like this can happen. You can mitigate the impact of these mistakes by aggregating projections and using the average.
This is my first foray into analyzing ownership projections, and I have a lot more questions that I’ll be digging into. I’m happy to share my findings, but if you think it’s lame, let me know and I can keep it to myself.
The Past
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Justin Thomas announced that he and his long-time caddie, Jimmy Johnson, were splitting up. Apparently, JT can’t be single long because he also announced that he was hiring Bones Mackay. Probably an upgrade for JT, but certainly a downgrade for the NBC telecast. In other caddie-related news, Bubba Watson announced that he and his caddie, Ted Scott, were also parting ways.
The Farmers Insurance Open will start a day early and finish on Saturday to make way for the NFL conference championships. The easiest prediction in the world is that The American Express will be delayed and throw the whole plan out of sorts.
After winning the BMW PGA Championship, Billy Horschel found himself in 2nd place on the Race to Dubai points list and is looking to win it. He’s also been challenged by his caddie to finish the year inside the top 10 in OWGR (he’s currently 18th). A motived Horschel could be a boon to our DFS lineups.
The Present
The LPGA is in Atlantic City for the ShopRite LPGA Classic at the Stockton Seaview Hotel and Golf Club-Bay Course. Inbee Park and Jin Young Ko are tied for the lead at 11-under par and take a three-shot lead into the final round. Golf Channel will have the coverage from 1:00 to 4:00 p.m. ET.
The PGA European Tour is in Scotland for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. Danny Willett (-14) is going into the final round with a three-shot lead over Shane Lowry, John Murphy, Tyrrell Hatton, and Richard Bland. Golf Channel will have the coverage from 7:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. ET.
The PGA TOUR is in Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Championship at the Country Club of Jackson. Sahith Theegala (-18) has a one-shot lead over Cameron Tringale, Denny McCarthy, Sam Burns, and Cameron Young. Golf Channel will have final round coverage at 4:00 p.m. ET.
It was a good week for the chalk; only Seamus Powers, Keegan Bradley and Carlos Ortiz missed the cut, and Sam Burns is currently tied for 2nd place. Here’s how the rest of the chalk is performing: Aaron Wise (T8, -15), Corey Conners (T10, -14), Will Zalatoris (T16, -13), Harold Varner III (T16, -13), Henrik Norlander (T22, -12), Kevin Streelman (T22, -12), Charley Hoffman (T34, -10), Sungjae Im (T34, -10), Mito Pereira (T45, -8), and Taylor Pendrith (T45, -8).
The PGA TOUR Champions is off this week.
The Future
Cue the showgirls, the PGA TOUR is heading to TPC Summerlin for the Shriners Children’s Open, the first leg of the Las Vegas Swing. It’s only a two-tournament swing, but two weeks in Vegas can feel like a month, at least.
The tournament came into being in 1983, and quickly attracted attention by offering the biggest purses in golf. It bounced around on the calendar for a few years before finding its permanent home in October in 1990. It has always been played in Las Vegas, but it has also bounced around courses and sponsors throughout the years.
Shriners Hospitals for Children took over sponsorship of the tournament for the 2008 edition. At the time, Justin Timberlake was the host of the tournament and had his name attached to the name of the tournament. In 2013, the tournament became known as the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. For 2021, the name will be cut down even further to simply Shriners Children’s Open.
It was also in 2008 that the tournament found its current home, TPC Summerlin.
TPC Summerlin opened in 1991. It was designed by Bobby Weed with Fuzzy Zoeller acting as a consultant. The course received a redesign in 2007 to get it ready for the PGA TOUR. It also received an update in 2018, when some bunkers were relocated to account for the distance of today’s PGA TOUR players.
The par-71 course is 7,255 yards long. It’s also at 2,700 feet above sea level, so driving distance is above the tour average and the course plays a bit shorter. There are four par 3s, ten par 4s, and three par 5s. All three par 5s are reachable. There is a drivable par 4, and two of the par 4s are right around 400-yards long and play under par. Three of the par 3s are at or above 200-yards long and play above par; the fourth par 3 is shorter and plays under par.
It is a resort-style course with some desert features. The fairways are wide, but they’re not always easy to hit. That doesn’t seem to be a problem however, as greens in regulation is well above the tour average. There are trees on the course, but they are pushed back away from the fairway and not very dense. Even further from the fairways, poor drives could end up in the waste and scrub of the desert. The bermudagrass rough is kept short. Water comes into play on four holes and there are bunkers in the landing zones. The fairways tend to get tighter beyond 300 yards and are usually firm and get a lot of roll-out. There is approximately 33 m of elevation change over the course.
On approach, golfers will be hitting into large, bentgrass greens. They play fast and are medium to firm. They are generally flat, but they do have the nuance of everything sloping towards the valley. They are protected by bunkers, water, and the tricky bermudagrass rough. Missing the greens is trouble; scrambling percentage is below the tour average.
Outside of the 2017 edition, TPC Summerlin is usually one of the easiest courses on tour. It has a course rating of 74.4 and a slope rating of 137. The winning score is usually better the 20-strokes under par (2015 was only -16), and the cutline is usually between -1 and -3 (though last year it hit a staggering -6). In 2017, strong winds kept the scoring down and Patrick Cantlay won at -9 with a cutline of +2.
Here are the last five winners:
2020: Martin Laird (-23)
2019: Kevin Na (-23)
2018: Bryson Dechambeau (-21)
2017: Patrick Cantlay (-9)
2016: Rod Pampling (-20)
The field is set for 144 golfers with 4 open qualifiers yet to be determined. The strength of the field last year was 392, so we’re starting to see some improvement over the past couple of tournaments. The field this year is headlined by Brooks Koepka, Louis Oosthuizen, Scottie Scheffler, Will Zalatoris, and Webb Simpson.
DFS Strategy
Reading past comments about the course from the golfers, it becomes clear that TPC Summerlin is a second-shot course. You can’t just bomb and gouge your way to victory here though. Golfers have to be able to control the flight and spin of their approach shots to hit the green and stick it close to the pin. In order to do so, they have to be hitting fairways, preferable with a good angle to attack difficult hole locations. Of course, you can hit all the fairways and greens you want, but if you’re not handy with the flat stick, you’re not going to be able to make enough birdies to contend. So, the special sauce we’re trying to cook up is a golfer that hits a lot of fairways regardless of their distance, is good with his wedges and can get hot with the putter.
As usual, my process will start by building my model using current form, course history, and course fit data.
For current form data, I will use the last five tournaments for golfers priced 7k and above, and the last three tournaments for golfers in the 6k range. This is a slight change from the past couple of tournaments; with a stronger field, the 7k golfers will be more talented and consistent than the previous two tournaments and I think five tournaments will give us a better representation of their current form than just three tournaments.
I will give course history it’s normal weighting in my model. Experience at the course will help golfers know where to position their tee shots to give them the best angle to attack pins and understand the subtle nuances of the greens. The course should be easy enough overall that newcomers don’t need to be avoided, however. I’m comfortable going back to 2008 for data since the course hasn’t been altered very much and it’s always been played in October.
Here are the course fit statistics that I’ll be using:
Fairways Gained: Success at this course starts with hitting the fairway. All of the recent winners, outside of Kevin Na, were near the top of the list in this statistic (Na just had a crazy hot putter, gaining 14.2 strokes on the field).
Strokes Gained: Approach: A staple in my model week after week. It’s a second shot course, and I would normally give it a higher weighting, but I’m also looking at proximity, so I’ll be getting a little redundancy in my statistics. I will be looking at this statistic on par-71 courses that are 7,200 to 7,400 yards in length.
Birdies or Better gained: No reason at this point to expect anything other than a winning score better than 20 strokes under par, golfers will need to make a lot of birdies to contend.
Proximity from 200+ yards: I know I just wrote that I’m looking for golfers with a good wedge game, but hear me out. Three of the best scoring opportunities on the course are the par 5s, which all come with approaches of over 200 yards if you want to hit the green in two (which is a possibility on all three). Also, three of the toughest holes on the course, are the par 3s that are approximately 200 yards in length. Don’t worry, I’ll cover wedges elsewhere.
Strokes Gained: Around the Green: If golfers are going for the par 5s in two or trying to drive the green on the short par 4, there is a good chance they will need to get up-and-down for birdie. They’ll also need to get up-and-down to save par and keep their momentum going if they miss the green on other holes.
Strokes Gained: Putting: Another staple in my model, I will switch up the surface as needed. This week I will be looking for bentgrass specialists.
After running my model, the statistics that I will be looking at during the sniff test to help make my determinations are proximity, recent strokes gained: approach and driving distance.
I really want to drill down into approach statistics, but I don’t want to bog down my model with too many statistics, so I will go back and look at some of them manually. I will look at proximity in general, but I will also look at proximity from 125-150 and 150-175 yards, two of the more common approach distances at TPC Summerlin. Putters can be volatile from tournament to tournament, but the irons tend to be more consistent. I’ll take a look at how golfers were with their irons during their last tournament and give preference to golfers that are coming in hot.
I’m not that interested in driving distance, but it will be helpful on this course. If I’m really trying to split hairs between a couple of golfers, I’ll take a look at driving distance to break any ties.
Las Vegas is home to quite a few golfers, and I’m sure you’ll hear all about golfers with local ties throughout the week. Whether it’s the ‘sleeping in their own bed’ narrative, or the ‘dealing with friends and family’ narrative, I don’t get into the whole hometown narrative. I’ll follow the course history to get an idea whether or not the hometown boys like playing at home.
Is the weather in Las Vegas ever anything other than warm and dry? The current forecast is calling for low 80s and partly cloudy skies without a drop of rain leading up to the event. The one concern is the 10-20 mph winds forecasted for Thursday. The wind could be an issue, so I will provide my usual updates on the weather throughout the week.
My update on leverage spots will come out on Wednesday, be sure to subscribe to my newsletter to get it in your inbox as soon as it does
Finally, I don’t have any reason to stop using 100% of my usual bankroll this week. I’ll continue to go with my 60/40 cash game to GPP split.
On the other tours: the LPGA will be in New Jersey for Cognizant Founders Cup at the Mountain Ridge Country Club; the PGA European Tour will be in Spain for ACCIONA Open de España at the Club de Campo Villa de Madrid; and the PGA TOUR Champions will be in Jacksonville, Florida for the Constellation Furyk & Friends at Timuquana Country Club.
I’ve got a wedding to go to next weekend, so you’ll be getting an abbreviated version of The Fringe. We’re getting a new course for The CJ Cup, so the plan is to shotgun blast all of the information I can find on The Summit Club and try to make sense of it all.
That’s all I have for now, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@glzisk) for any updates.