Good morning!
This one was already well over 5,000 words before I started writing the introduction. I do not want to take up any more of your time, so I am going to just keep it moving.
The Past
Congratulations to laudyn on winning the $70k Birdie for the Valspar Championship with 523.5 points. They did not have the winner, Peter Malnati, in their lineup but they did have second-place finisher Cameron Young, third-place finisher Mackenzie Hughes, and fifth-place finisher Xander Schauffele. They also had a couple of top-20 finishes. The worst performer in their lineup was Dylan Wu with a T26 (though he did outscore Billy Horschel who finished T12).
Their margin of victory was 14 points.
Of the 20 lineups entered by laudyn, seven of them made it across the payline. None of them came in the top 1,000, so they did not add much to laudyn’s total, but I am sure they are happy with the $6,000 the one lineup brought in.
The winning lineup was a fairly typical stars-and-scrubs build. Since they rostered Xander Schauffele at 11.2k, they had to find salary relief somewhere. We have recently been seeing stars-and-scrubs lineups skipping the 9k range, doubling up in the 8k range and going with the standard two 7k golfers and one 6k golfer. Laudyn took a different approach, rostering one 9k and 8k golfer like usual, but then rostering one 7k golfer and double dipping in the 6k range.
Laudyn rostered 38 golfers in their player pool, which I think is a lot, but we have been regularly seeing player pools with 30-plus golfers, so maybe it is more conventional than I think. Their largest exposures were to Xander Schauffele at 45%, Nick Taylor at 40%, and Doug Ghim at 40%. They had three golfers at 30%, two at 25%, and three at 20%. They then had ten golfers in three lineups, nine golfers in two lineups, and eight golfers in one lineup. So, while it was a large pool, they had a pretty tight core but then mixed and matched with a ton of golfers.
They rostered four golfers from the 10k+ range, four from the 9ks, seven from the 8ks, ten from the 7ks, twelve from the 6ks, and a single golfer from the 5ks. Their distribution is typical of what we have been seeing except that they were a little overweight on the 6k range. Their core was built by targeting a single golfer in the 10ks and 9ks, and two golfers in the 8k range (while occasionally swapping in a few other golfers). With the exception of Joel Dahmen, nobody from the 7k, 6k, or 5k range were rostered more than four times and about a third of them were only rostered once.
Cumulative ownership for the winning lineup was 76.6%, right in the range that we typically shoot for (60-80%). Even with Xander Schauffele at 36.3%, they managed to stay inside that range by including three golfers under 6%. Overall, they used five golfers above 20%, six golfers from the 15-20% range, seven from the 10-15% range, twelve golfers from the 5-10% range, and eight golfers that were under 5%, including three golfers that were under 1%.
It was a tolerable week for me in the Birdie. I only had one of my twenty lineups get all six golfers through the cut, and seven lineups that got five of six through the cut (% are my exposures). According to Cutsweats, about 2% of lineups in most GPPS had 6 of 6 through the cut and 15% of lineups had 5 of 6 make the cut, so it was a tough week for everybody. I ate a bunch of bad chalk, but big helpings of Xander and Cameron Young, along with a last round push from Ryan Moore, got seven of my lineups across the payline. My best finish was 734th though. I was only able to nickel and dime about 75% of my money back. Thankfully, I was able to pull off comparable results in the other contests that I played, and I was able to get to the positive side of breakeven.
My player pool was larger than usual this week because I was unsure about how the weather would play out during the tournament and decided to stack both waves, requiring more golfers to make my lineups work.
My One-and-Done selection was Sam Burns who missed the cut. That is three weeks in a row in which I have failed to collect a single dollar. I am sliding down the ranks and starting to approach the relegation zone.
Click on the underlined text for the full story.
Tiger Woods got in a practice round at Augusta National with chairman Fred Ridley and Justin Thomas on Saturday. Augusta is a tough walk, so it’s a good sign that he’s getting out there. I still have no intention of rostering him in DFS though.
A couple of golfers were seen with new equipment at Memorial Park this week. Tony Finau has a new shaft for his driver and Gary Woodland has a new head for his driver. Tony Finau has been a bit underwhelming this season, but finds himself in contention going into Sunday at the Houston Open. Gary Woodland has only made two cuts since returning from brain surgery and is currently tied for 34th in Houston. Looks like both changes may be helping.
Someone that probably won’t be making changes anytime soon is Scottie Scheffler. After winning two tournaments in a row, his coach admitted that they aren’t working on anything. Why mess with a good thing? I‘m done fading Scottie Scheffler, he’ll be in my DFS lineups for the foreseeable future.
If you want to start preparing for your future, the staff at Golf Channel put together a comprehensive list of major eligibility for all LIV golfers. This could be particularly useful if you are playing One-and-Done and looking to save some bigger PGA names for later.
The Present
The PGA Tour is the Lone Star State for the Texas Children’s Houston Open at the Memorial Park Golf Course. There are five golfers tied atop of the leaderboard at -9: David Skinns, Stephan Jaeger, Scottie Scheffler, Alejandro Tosti, and Thomas Detry. Nick Dunlap, Taylor Moore, and Akshay Bhatia are a single stroke back.
The wind came almost as expected on Thursday; winds were light all day but there was a slight uptick in the afternoon and the morning wave enjoyed a small advantage. The wind almost came as expected for Friday too; wind started light and then picked up in the afternoon, but the light winds held on for a little longer than originally expected and the morning wave got a decent advantage. The golfers in the morning on Friday had a better advantage than the golfers on Thursday morning, so the PM/AM wave ended up with a small advantage overall.
Here is the complete breakdown from @RobBoltonGolf:
Round 1 average: AM: 70.21; PM: 70.65
Round 2 average: AM: 70.97; PM: 71.75
AM/PM total: 141.96
PM/AM total: 141.62
Advantage: PM/AM by 0.34 strokes
C.T. Pan, Kevin Yu, and Maverick McNealy withdrew prior to the tournament. Scott Stalling (shoulder) withdrew before the second round.
Here is how the chalk is performing after three rounds (% from $60K Birdie):
Golf Channel will have final round coverage from 1:00 to 2:30 p.m. ET, and NBC will pick it up from there. The stream on ESPN+ will start at 11:00 a.m. ET.
The Future
The PGA Tour is heading a few hours west on I-10 for the Valero Texas Open at the TPC San Antonio Oaks Course, and the last chance to secure an invite to The Masters for anybody not already on their way to Augusta.
The Valero Texas Open was established in 1922, making it the 3rd longest running tournament on the PGA Tour and one of the longest running tournaments in the world. As you might expect from a tournament that has been around for over a century, it has a rich history. Many legends of the sport have won the tournament, including Arnold Palmer when he three-peated in the 1960’s. Notably, however, Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods are absent from the list of winners. In 2011, Kevin Na famously carded a 16 on the par-4 ninth hole. In 2019, Corey Conners Monday-qualified for the event and went on to win it, earning a spot in the Masters the following week and jump-starting his PGA career.
The tournament has always been played in the San Antonio-area, making it the longest running host city on tour. It has been played at eight different courses, however. It moved to its current home, TPC San Antonio, in 2010. Prior to that, it had been played at La Cantera Golf Club since 1995.
Outside of a couple of exceptions, the event has always had ‘Texas Open’ as part of its title. Valero took over as the title sponsorship in 2002.
For much of its history, the Texas Open was played in the fall. It was even briefly part of the short-lived Fall Series. In 2009, it was moved to May, and became a regular PGA Tour event. It has moved around on the calendar ever since; it was played in May for a couple of years, then it was played the week after the Masters for a couple, then it served as a prelude to the Masters for a couple, then it was moved to the end of April, and in 2019 it was moved back to its position the week before the Masters.
Since moving to TPC Antonio in 2010, winning scores have ranged from -8 to -20. Last year, with their closest competitors three shots back, Patrick Rodgers and Corey Conners were setup for a final round duel, but Rodgers squandered his one-shot lead with a 73 on Sunday. Sam Stevens didn’t let Conners cruise to victory, however; he eagled the 17th hole to get within one shot of Conners but missed the birdie putt on the 18th hole to tie for the lead. Conners was able to par the final hole to finish at -15 and claim his second Valero Texas Open championship (cutline: E; median score for cut makers: -5).
Here are all the winners and their scores since the move to the Oaks Course:
The Field
It does not seem to matter when the tournament falls on the calendar for the golfers; regardless of whether it is before or after the Masters, the strength of field at the Valero is usually below average. Last year, not only was it on par with other recent editions, but it was also the exact the same as it was in 2022 (strength of field 209, 32nd strongest of 43, average was 268).
According to @VC606 on X (the OWGR guru), the strength of field for the Valero should see a noticeable increase this year. The estimated strength of field is close to 325, which would make it the strongest non-signature event of the season so far. Undoubtedly, the field does look pretty strong. Four of the top ten golfers in the world are in the field: Rory McIlroy, Brian Harman, Ludvig Aberg, and Max Homa. Another handful of golfers inside the top twenty are also in the field: Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, and Jordan Spieth.
The field is set for 156 golfers, with two sponsor exemptions and four open qualifiers yet to be determined.
Course Description
TPC San Antonio is home to two courses; the Pete-Dye designed Canyons Course, and the Greg Norman-designed Oaks Course. It is the Oaks Course that we are interested in this week, but the Canyons Course was host to a PGA Tour Champions event from 2011 to 2015. Both courses opened in 2010.
The course has received some work in its short existence. In 2013, the greens were re-sculpted, and the fairways were widened on holes 1, 4 and 10. A new tee box was added to the 5th hole prior to the 2021 edition, extending it to 401 yards in length. In 2021, the bunkers were updated with new liners and Premier White Sand.
The Oaks Course is now a 7,438-yard, par-72, technical design. It has four par 3s, ten par 4s, and four par 5s. Last year, it played as the 15th most difficult course on tour (out of 49). While the par 5s are among the best scoring opportunities, birdies are not guaranteed. Only one of the par 5s is reachable in two by most of the field; the other three are approximately 600 yards in length. All four of them still played under par though. Two par-4s make an appearance in the top-5 easiest holes on the course: the 347-yard 17th hole, and the 401-yard 5th hole. The first hole of the Oaks Course, a 454-yard par 4, was the 12th most difficult hole on tour last year. The par 3s all average above par, with the 241-yard 13th hole playing as one of the most difficult holes on the course.
Here is the official 2024 scorecard:
Off the tee, golfers will see tree-lined fairways that taper-off at 300 yards (29 yards wide at 300 yards, 16th widest of 30 measured courses; average is 30.9 yards). They are protected by large bunkers in the landing zones and water on three holes. The bunkering highlights the Mackenzie-style bunker that utilize free-form sculpturing and unique usage of mounds. To my eye, they look like amoebas and could be terribly difficult to play from. The rough is Perennial rye and fescue and is cut to 2.25 inches in length. In the past, when the tournament was played the week before the Masters, the rough is kept short to replicate play at Augusta National, so I do not expect the rough to be too penal. There is all sorts of trouble if golfers get too wayward off the tee and end up in the native area (just ask Kevin Na). The fairways are also Perennial rye and fescue. There is a 39 m difference between the highest and lowest point on the course, but golfers will climb a total of 82 m during their rounds, so there is a good amount of elevation change throughout the course. I also found an interesting note on the TPC website regarding the elevation changes; the layout was designed such that downhill holes play into the prevailing winds, while the uphill holes play with the prevailing winds.
On approach, golfers will see average-sized greens (6,400 sq. ft.). The putting surface had previously been described as Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa trivialis, but the GCSAA has it listed as Poa trivialis overseed this year. They play medium to firm and the speed is slightly below average (Stimp =11). The greens are elevated and contoured to feed misplaced balls into closely mown runoff areas. They are also undulating and multi-tiered, and protected by large, deep bunkers. The par-3 16th features a bunker right in the middle of green and the 2nd and 7th holes share a green.
The Oaks Course is a stern test from tee-to green. The greens, seemingly designed to repel poor approach shots, are among the hardest to hit on tour; Greens in Regulation last year was 59.0 % (44th of 47; average was 66.2%). To have the best shot at holding the greens, golfers must be playing from the fairway, but that is easier said than done with firm fairways and a stiff breeze. Driving Accuracy last year was 55.6% (35th of 47; average was 62.1%). In attempt to keep the ball in the fairway, golfers will leave the driver in the bag at times despite the Oaks Course being one of the longer courses on the tour; average Driving Distance was 286.3 yards (tied for 13th of 34; average was 284.9). Golfers aren’t necessarily punished if they miss the green though; scrambling percentage was 58.7% (tied for 24th of 47; average was 58.5).
The Course Table on DataGolf offers interesting insights into the Oaks Courses. While the course is in the middle of the pack when it comes to approach, it is the third most difficult course on approach from inside 150 yards over the last five years. It has been the easiest course for approach shots from the rough over the same time period, while also being the fifth most difficult from non-rough areas away from the fairway. If golfers miss the fairway, there isn’t much penalty if you keep it in the rough, but you are in trouble if you put it into a bunker or the native area. The bunkers are also a problem around the green, they have been the third most difficult to play from on tour. The par 5s are the second most difficult set of par 5s after this week’s venue, Memorial Park.
Weather
The weather can play a crucial factor at TPC San Antonio. The wind always seems to play a role whenever the tour is Texas, but precipitation is important too. The amount of rain the area has seen will dictate how firm the course will play; some years the course has gotten a lot of rain and the greens have been receptive, but it’s usually dry and the greens play firm and the fairways get a lot of rollout, leading to missed fairways and greens. Firm fairways do bring the shorter hitters into play though. The area has been under drought conditions for three years, so I would expect firm and fast conditions. As of now, winds will start light on Thursday, then build throughout the day on Friday, and hit 10-15 mph with 25 mph gusts on Saturday before dropping back down into the single digits for Sunday. The days might start off cool and get into the 70s by the afternoon. There is no rain in the forecast.
DFS Strategy
A look at the paths to victory for the recent champions reveals that there are multiple ways to conquer this challenging track. Martin Laird did it with superb off-the-tee play and putting. Andrew Landry and Corey Conners did it with decent off-the-tee play and putting, but they were the best in the field on approach (both times for Corey Conners). Jordan Spieth barely gained strokes off-the-tee, but he made up for it with top-notch around-the-green play and being strong on approach and putting. Two years ago, J.J. Spaun did it by simply hitting lots of fairways and greens, and cleaning up any of his messes, gaining 2.6 strokes off the tee, 2.8 strokes on approach, 3.3 strokes around the green, and 3.0 strokes putting.
That might make it seem like it leaves us with different ways to approach this tournament for DFS, but I think that might be a mistake. Martin Laird and Jordan Spieth had to rely on putting way above their baseline to make up for their deficiencies; while Corey Conners played to his strength, good ballstriking, and putted a little better than he normally does (J.J. Spaun and Andrew Landry were way above their baseline in pretty much every facet of the game).
I think the safe way to approach this tournament is to target the ballstrikers. The fairways are difficult to hit, and the bombers will be neutralized by the narrowing of the fairways at 300-yards, prevailing winds, and all of the trouble just off the fairway. Unless we see a performance like Martin Laird’s, this tournament is won on the approach. The firm, multi-tiered greens will give an edge to golfers that are precise with their irons. The DataGolf Course Table inidcates that wedges will be especially important on approach. The scrambling percentage suggests that getting up-and-down should not be too difficult in the event of a missed green, so golfers should not need an around-the-green performance like Jordan Spieth’s, but they will need to be proficient, particularly from the bunkers, to stay in contention. The undulations and contours of the greens will make them tough to putt on, so the hope has to be to pick ballstrikers that can get hot with the putter on Poa trivialis greens.
As usual, I will start my process by building my course fit model and putting together Recent Form and Course History spreadsheets. I will use my model to target golfers that are that are strong off the tee, good with their wedges, have a tidy short game, and are comfortable putting on Poa trivialis. I will also look for golfers the excel on difficult courses, can take advantage of the par 5s, and can save themselves in the sand.
According to DataGolf, TPC San Antonio is just outside of the top five for most predictive Course History. I will look at course history, but it will not factor too strongly in my decision-making. TPC San Antonio is a difficult track, but not all that nuanced; just keep the ball in play off the tee, hit a lot of greens, and hope to sink a few putts. The statistics suggest it is important though, so I would not blame you if you put more emphasis on Course History than I would. Even though the course has experienced some changes, and the event has moved around on the calendar, the character of the course has not changed. It has always been a long, challenging brute. I am comfortable using data back to 2010, when the tournament was first played at TPC San Antonio. I personally think that the results lose their relevancy after a decade or so and will only use data back to 2014.
Here is the top ten in Course History from my One-and-Done tool:
Corey Conners
Charley Hoffman
Matt Kuchar
Jordan Spieth
Lucas Glover
Gary Woodland
Sam Stevens
Brandt Snedeker
Si Woo Kim
Chris Kirk
Here are the course fit statistics I will use (all last 100 rounds):
Off-the-tee:
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee: A staple in model week after week. I usually use a second off-the-tee statistic to home in on the type of golfer that I am targeting, but I am not looking for anything special from off the tee this week, so I will just use this statistic. I do not need excellent drivers of the ball; I just want guys that will not lose too much ground from the tee box. I will look at this statistic on courses that are over 7,400 yards.
Approach:
Strokes Gained: Approach: A staple in my model week after week. I will give this category a little extra weighting this week because I think this tournament will be won or lost on approach. I will look at this statistic at courses over 7,400 yards in length.
Opportunities Gained: I really want to emphasize the approach game this week. I will use Opportunities Gained to make sure I am rostering golfers that give themselves a lot of looks at Birdie. I will look at this statistic at courses over 7,400 yards in length.
Proximity 100-150 yards: The distribution of approach shots from this range is close to the tour average, but the Oaks Course is one of the most difficult courses on tour from this range, so I want to make sure my guys are good with their wedges.
Around-the-Green:
Strokes Gained: Around-the-green: I do not always use this statistical category in my model, but with greens designed to repel approach shots, hitting greens will be difficult, and I will give the Around-the-Green category some consideration this week.
Sand Save Percentage: I have in my notes from last year that there seems to be more sand saves than I usually observe, and the DataGolf Course Table suggests that sand saves are among the most difficult at TPC San Antonio, so I want to roster golfers that are adept at getting out of the bunkers.
Putting:
Strokes Gained: Putting on Poa trivialis: Putting is another staple in my model, I will switch up the surface as needed. This week, we are looking for Poa trivialis specialists. TPC Sawgrass, TPC Scottsdale, PGA West Stadium Course, Innisbrook, Memorial Park, and Quail Hollow have a similar mix of grasses on the greens, so I will pull putting statistics from those courses.
Scoring:
Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with Difficult Scoring: Some golfers just seem to step their game up on difficult courses, while others seem to play better in birdie fests. TPC San Antonio is one of the toughest courses on tour each year, I want to roster golfers that are up for the challenge.
Par 5 Scoring 550-650 yards: With a couple of exceptions, par is going to be a good score on most of the holes. Golfers will have to separate themselves by taking advantage of the par 5s. There are no short par 5s on the courses, so I want golfers that can manage the average to long par 5s.
Bogey Avoidance: The course should be firm and fast, and it looks like the winds might be up for a couple of days, which sets up for a lot missed greens and golfers fighting to save par. I want to roster golfers that are adept at avoiding the bogeys that will set them back in tough scoring conditions.
After building my model, I usually look at a few other statistics to help make my determinations. This week I will look at Par 4 Scoring 400-500 yards, Driving Distance, and Strokes Gained: Total in the Wind.
The par 3s are long and difficult, same with the par 5s; golfers that can score on the par 4s will be able to separate themselves from the pack. Nine of the ten par 4s fall into this range, so that is where I will focus.
I am really emphasizing accuracy this week, but I will look at Driving Distance if I am trying to make a tough decision between golfers. I know distance is neutralized at TPC San Antonio, but it can be helpful as long as golfers are accurate, so I will give preference to the longer hitter, as long as their Fairways Gained numbers are good.
It looks like the wind could be strong for a couple of days, I will give preference to golfers with a strong record in the wind.
I will also build a model that includes statistics that are only available using The Rabbit Hole on Betsperts.com. This model will include Strokes Gained: Off the Tee on Low Rough Penalty Courses, Strokes Gained: Approach on Difficult GIR Accuracy Courses, Apex Height, Sand Save Percentage at Difficult Sand Save Courses, Strokes Gained: Putting on Poa trivialis, Par 5 BoB% at Courses with Difficult Par 5s, and Strokes Gained: Total on Texas Courses. Keep in mind that I am still trying to wrap my head around all of the filters available in The Rabbit Hole, and these statistics may change.
I have included Apex Height in my Rabbit Hole model because I think golfers with high ball flights will have an easier time holding greens on approach than golfers with a lower ball flight. Most golfers are somewhat adept at controlling the height of their golf ball with their irons, but the golfers that can get their ball higher should have an advantage.
Turning to the Roster Construction Matrix; with an average to strong field but a difficult course, the matrix puts us firmly in the stars-and-scrubs build. If the course sounds like it will be playing easier than normal (which I doubt), you could try a balanced lineup. If it sounds like it will be harder than normal (which I think is possible), then super stars-and-scrubs comes into play. I always suggest trying a few super stars-and-scrubs builds to get a feel for how they come together before settling on that specific build.
As always, we should be on the lookout for ways to get leverage on our opponents. We will start in the same two places we start our search for leverage every week, then move onto to other ways to get leverage specific to this tournament. The first is the ownership projections, where we will try to identify the chalk, and then look for good pivots off the chalk. The next place we should look is in the pricing; identify golfers that are priced too low and consider fading them because they will likely be over-owned and identify the golfers that are priced too high and give them consideration because the DFS community will try to avoid them.
There are a few narratives you will hear about during the week with which we can work. Whenever the PGA Tour is in Texas, the touts talk about rostering golfers with a local connection (we hear this about most geographic regions). Another geographic narrative you will hear is about Australians. An Australian, Greg Norman, designed the course, some Australian golfers have commented on how the course reminds them of their home courses, and a couple of Australians have even won the event at TPC San Antonio. I will only use the geography narratives if I am down to deciding between a couple of golfers, but I will also use it to fade any golfers that seem to be getting a little too much steam just because they are from Texas or Australia.
The third narrative you will hear about is the Masters; whether or not we should roster golfers that have punched their ticket to Augusta. Steve Bamford wrote a couple of years ago that 7 of the last 8 winners of the event just before the Master had not been previously qualified for it. A lot of touts take Bamford’s word as gospel, and I think DFS players will try to avoid golfers that are already qualified. I think we should approach the trend with a more discerning eye. I do not think golfers are just using this event as a tune-up and do not care about their results; there is too much on the line with OWGR points and FedEx Cup points, especially with the signature events, to just dismiss a tournament. Also, consider that there just hasn’t been many golfers that play both tournaments. It looks to me that those qualified for the Masters are winning at a rate you would expect them to. We might be able to get some leverage by rostering the golfers that will be in Augusta, just check their record in tournaments the week before a major to confirm that they don’t blow them off.
Here is the current list of golfers that will being heading to Augusta after the Valero: Hideki Matsuyama, Ludvig Åberg, Brian Harman, Harris English, Austin Eckroat, Erik van Rooyen, Eric Cole, Grayson Murray, Russell Henley, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jordan Spieth, Max Homa, Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners, Nicolai Højgaard, Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, Lee Hodges, Adam Schenk, Tommy Fleetwood, Lucas Glover, Denny McCarthy, Tom Kim, Ryo Hisatsune, Rickie Fowler, Zach Johnson, Ryan Fox, Camilo Villegas, and Thorbjørn Olesen.
There are a couple of other angles for gaining leverage in our DFS contests. First, I think most DFS players will go with stars-and-scrubs lineups, so we can get leverage with balanced lineups. The other angle would be to target the bombers. I think DFS players will be targeting the accuracy-off-the-tee type golfers and the ballstrikers. It has proven to be less likely over the past few years, but I think this course could be susceptible to the bomb-and-gouge strategy.
Finally, I will continue using 100% of my usual bankroll this week, with a focus on GPPs. Unless you want to save some bankroll to go hard at the Masters, I do not see any reason you should hold back this week.
That’s all I have for now, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@glzisk) for any updates.
Have a great week!