Good Morning, Fringe readers!
The next tournament on the PGA Schedule is a team event. The format has grown on me as a viewer, but I still haven’t learned to enjoy it as a DFS player and will be taking the week off from DFS.
I still put together my PGA DFS preview though, so keep reading. I will also send out the Recent Form and Course History spreadsheet tomorrow. After that, you will not hear from me again until next Sunday. If I’m not playing DFS, there really isn’t any reason for me to be on social media either.
The Past
Congratulations to vishy2773 (@VishyDFS on X) on winning the $200k Birdie for the Masters Tournament. They almost had a complete sweep of the podium; they had the winner, Scottie Scheffler, second-place finisher Ludvig Aberg, and third-place finishers Tommy Fleetwood and Collin Morikawa in their lineup. They were just missing Max Homa for the complete sweep. They finished off their lineup with two 6k golfers, Adam Schenk (T12) and Byeong Hun An (T16).
Their margin of victory was 4.5 points.
Of the 20 lineups entered by vishy2773, fifteen of them made it across the pay line. Their next best finish was 971st. With the expanded contest size for the Masters, first place was worth $20,000. Even though vishy2773 did not add much to their total in the Birdie, it was a big week for them otherwise; this same lineup also finished fourth in the Milly Maker, first in the $100k Full Round Special, and first in the $15k Fore. When you throw in the other small winnings, they took home $83.5k for the week.
The winning lineup was as close as you can get to a standard stars-and-scrubs build when one of your golfers is 12.1k. After Scheffler, they had one 9k golfer, one 8k golfer, one in the 7k range (instead of the usual two), and two in the 6k range.
Vishy2773 rostered 28 golfers in their player pool. It’s a little bigger than I shoot for, but, as you’ll see, they had a tight core with a lot of one-offs, so it’s acceptable.
Their largest exposure was to Tommy Fleetwood at 75%. Their next biggest exposures were to Scottie Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick at 55%, Xander Schauffele at 45%, and Sahith Theegala at 35%. They then had three golfers at 30%, 25%, 20%, and 15%. They also had two golfers in two lineups and nine one-offs. None of their one-offs were in the winning lineups though.
I like a tight core of golfers for my player pool, but 75% exposure to one golfer is a lot and I rarely get there. Fortune favors the bold though, and if you can get a golfer that finishes T3 into 75% of your lineups, good things are going to happen. Getting higher exposures to single golfers is something I try to do, but usually chicken out. Could be one of the reasons I have never taken down the Birdie myself.
They rostered two golfers from the 10k+ range, but one of them was a one-off. They also had five from the 9ks, four from the 8ks, ten from the 7ks, and seven from the 6ks. Their distribution is typical of what we have been seeing except that all of the one-offs inflated the 7k and 6k numbers a little. Even more impressive, Tommy Fleetwood was 7.5 K and Matt Fitzpatrick was 7.9k, and they still managed to get eight other 7k golfers in their pool. The 75% exposure to a single golfer was bold, but 75% exposure to a 7k golfer is near lunacy, Vishy2773 must have had a feeling.
Their core consisted of four golfers, Scheffler at 12.1k, Xander at 9.9k and then Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick. It is a unique core, planting their flag on two golfers up top and getting massive exposure to two golfers in the 7k range. They then mix-and-matched in the lower 9ks and 8ks and then got a smattering of golfers below 7.5. At least three of their core golfers appeared together in eleven lineups. That is commitment.
Cumulative ownership for the winning lineup was 74.6%, right in the heart of the range that we typically shoot for (60-80%). Overall, they used five golfers above 20%, six golfers from the 15-20% range, six from the 10-15% range, five golfers from the 5-10% range, and six golfers that were under 5%. They certainly were not shy about using the chalk but did a good job of getting plenty of low-owned plays to differentiate themselves.
The Masters was a disaster for me, not a complete unmitigated disaster, but pretty close. I was cooked the minute I decided to fade Scottie Scheffler. My thinking was that contest sizes were going to be much bigger than we are accustomed to, and I was going to have to get a little more leverage than usual if I wanted to win. Instead of rostering Scheffler and getting different in the lower ranges, I chose to fade Scheffler and not worry about being chalky in the lower ranges. Obviously, Scheffler won, but he also scored 29.5 points more than the next golfer. You just could not be competitive without him. It also did not help that I made big bets on golfers that missed the cut or did not perform well.
My player pool was bigger than normal because I stacked both waves and needed extra golfers to build all the lineups I wanted.
I had four of my twenty lineups get all six golfers through the cut, but Cutsweats had some contests with over 30% of lineups with 6 of 6 through the cut. I was way off the pace. No Scottie and a bunch of missed cuts wasn’t a good combination.
I was only able to get two lineups across the pay line and they both got the minimum payout. I got just $10 back, a heavy price to pay just to learn not to fade Scottie Scheffler.
My One-and-Done selection was Jon Rahm who finished T45. I am sliding down the ranks and only a couple of spots above relegation. I really need to start doing some damage if I want to get back in this thing; it is not too late, but I really need to make some moves.
Click on the underlined text for the full story.
Maybe it’s just that the furor over LIV has died down and reporters are paying attention to actual golf, but it seems like there has been many equipment changes on the PGA Tour the past few weeks.
We learned that Rory McIlroy was experimenting with the TaylorMade BRNR Mini Driver Copper at the Valero and then again at the Masters, but it finally made it into his bag for the RBC Heritage. It’s going to be a course-specific club, but if he can make it work at Harbour Town, maybe he can find an advantage at other tight, short courses. We also learned that Jason Day put a new set of iron in his bag back at the Houston Open; he’s currently T45 at the RBC Heritage so maybe he needs to do some more tinkering. We also learned that Collin Morikawa has a new driver, 3-wood, 4-iron, and golf ball, and his game has seems to turn around completely after competing at the Masters and currently in third place at the RBC Heritage.
If you had been hoping to get Gordon Sargent into your DFS lineups, you will have to wait a little longer as he has decided to hold off on joining the PGA Tour and will play one more season at Vanderbilt.
Don’t throwaway your notes on the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island just yet, the PGA of America announced that it will host the PGA Championship in 2031.
The Present
The PGA Tour is in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links. Scottie Scheffler (-16) has a one-shot lead over Sepp Straka going into the final round. Collin Morikawa is two strokes back and Sahith Theegala, Patrick Rodgers, and Ludvig Aberg are three strokes off the lead.
I said earlier in the week that there are no waves in these small-field events and, therefore, no wave stacking. That is not completely accurate; they do go off in one big wave, but there are distinct halves that flip flop early and late starts. Next time, if we really want to drill down into the minutia, we may be able to find stacking opportunities. The weather on Thursday and Friday played out as expected, with light winds in the morning ticking up slightly in the afternoon, so there probably was not a stack there anyway.
Viktor Hovland was the only WD prior to the event. There have been no WDs during the event so far.
Here is how the chalk is performing after three rounds (% from $75k Birdie):
Golf Channel will have final round coverage from 1:00 to 3:00 p.m. ET, and CBS will pick it up from there. The stream on ESPN+ started at 7:15 a.m. ET.
The PGA Tour is also in the Dominican Republic for the Corales Puntacana Championship at the Puntacana Resort and Club, an alternate-field event. Wesley Bryan (-17) has a one-shot lead over Kevin Tway as the final round gets underway. Taylor Pendrith and Justin Lower are two shots back.
The Future
The PGA Tour is taking a brief departure from their regularly scheduled programming to bring you something wholly unique, the Zurich Classic of New Orleans at TPC Louisiana.
Instead of 144 golfers going toe-to-toe for four rounds of stroke play, they will be pairing off for a team event this week.
The Zurich Classic dates back to 1938, but it did not adopt this format until 2017.
After its founding, the tournament ran annually until 1948. It then disappeared from the PGA Tour schedule, only to return a decade later. It has always been played in the New Orleans area but did not settle in its current home until 2007. It was played at TPC Louisiana in 2005, but damage from Hurricane Katrina caused it to be played at its previous home, English Turn Golf and Country Club, in 2006 while the course was repaired.
For much of its history, the tournament did not have a title sponsor and simply went by the New Orleans Open or New Orleans Invitational or something like that. In 1981, USF&G became the first title sponsor of the tournament. They held it for a decade before Freeport-McMoRan took it over. In 1999, Compaq got the title sponsorship, and the name was changed to the Compaq Classic of New Orleans. HP held the sponsorship in 2003-04 before Zurich took it over in 2005.
As a result of the change in format in 2017, DraftKings stopped hosting contests for the event, and I must admit that it fell off my radar at that point.
DraftKings began hosting contests for it again in 2021. I still did not have much interest in the tournament, and I did not commit any money to it, but I figured that if they are hosting contests, I might as well pay attention.
First, let us cover the unique rules for the new format. There are eighty teams made up of two golfers; the top eighty golfers on the PGA Tour Priority Ranking in the field choose their partners, who must be PGA Tour members or have received a sponsor exemption to the tournament. The first and third rounds are played as Four-ball, and the second and final round are played as Alternate-shot. The cutline is the top 33 teams and ties. The winners receive 400 FedEx Cup points, a two-year exemption, and invitations to the Tournament of Champions, THE PLAYERS Championship, and the PGA Championship.
On DraftKings, rosters are made up of teams, rather than single players. The teams are scored as a pair, rather than individually (in Four-ball they receive the same score regardless of the individual result).
Even before switching to the team format, winning scores at TPC Louisiana regularly approached 20 strokes under par. After the switch, the scoring exploded. When Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith won the event in 2021, their score of 20 strokes under par was the highest total of the team era. Last year, Nick Hardy and Davis Riley joined forces to set the scoring record for the team event era at -30, two strokes better than second-place finishers Adam Hadwin and Nick Taylor (cutline: -10; median score for cut makers: -20).
Here are all the winners and their scores since the change in format:
The Field:
The OWGR does not calculate the strength of field for this event, but if I had to guess, it would be near the middle of the pack, probably to the low side. A few big names pop up every year, but it is mostly the rank-and-file showing up. There are also a few names each year that you may not recognize because organizers have to go far down the roster to fill out a 160-man field. The field this year looks like what we have seen in the past; there are a few powerhouse teams, including Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Shane Lowry and Rory McIlroy, and Sahith Theegala and Will Zalatoris (Kurt Kitayama and Collin Morikawa might also be considered a powerhouse), but the talent falls sharply after that. Defending champions Nick Hardy and Davis Riley are running it back this year, as well as the runner ups Adam Hadwin and Nick Taylor. Three sets of brothers are also teaming up: the Coodies, Fitzpatricks, and the Hojgaards.
Here is the latest list of all the teams.
The field is set for 160 golfers (80 teams), there are no open qualifiers or sponsor exemptions to be determined.
Course Description
TPC Louisiana was designed by Pete Dye with the help of Steve Elkington and Kelly Gibson and opened in 2004. The course received renovations in 2019 and 2020. The renovations restored the bunkers to their original shape and size, and improved drainage throughout the course.
The course was hit by Hurricane Ida in 2021; nine acres of wooded area had to be removed and 700 trees were lost, 600 of them have been replaced so far. The iconic tree in the middle of the 11th fairway was also lost.
It is a 7,425-yard, par-72 course. By par, it is tied for the 16th longest course on tour. There are four par 3s, ten par 4s, and four par 5s. The par 5s are four of the five easiest holes on the course; two of them should be reachable by everybody. Five of the par 4s are at or under 400 yards in length, and play under par. The other four par 4s are closer to 500 yards in length, and play over par. The par 3s are all over 200 yards in length, and only one of them plays under par. In all, the scoring average is under par on eleven of the holes.
Here is the official 2024 scorecard:
Off the tee, golfers will see wide, generous fairways (no measurement available). The TifSport bermudagrass rough is kept on the shorter side (2 inches). The fairways are Celebration bermudagrass. The landings zones are protected by bunkers, and a few of Dye’s specialties: mounds, pot bunkers, and waste bunkers. Water is in play on eight holes. There are doglegs, requiring golfers to move the ball in both directions. The course is flat, there is only 13 m of difference between the highest and lowest points on the course and golfers will only climb 54 m during their rounds. It is also right at sea level, so the course should play soft if there is any moisture.
On approach, the greens are small, but not as small as what we are seeing at Harbour town (5,225 sq. ft.). In the past, the surface has been listed as TifEagle bermudagrass overseeded with Poa trivialis and velvet bentgrass on the GCSAA Tournament Fact Sheet, but it was simply listed as Poa trivialis last year. This time of year, the bermudagrass has not come in yet, so the overseed dominates. They are usually soft and above average in speed (Stimp = 12). They are protected by bunkers, mounds, closely-mown runoff areas, and water on a few holes. They also have a good amount of undulation. The fronts are flat and open, so golfers can run their approach shots up onto the green.
I am going to run through all of the statistics we have, but keep in mind that they come from 2016, the last time the course was played as a non-team event.
In true Pete Dye-fashion, even though the course is long and wide, it does not necessarily favor the bombers; golfers must position themselves properly to get the right angle into the greens and avoid being blocked out by overhanging trees. The fairways are easier than average to hit (Driving Accuracy was 63.5%; tour average last year was 62.1%). Also typical of Pete Dye designs, golfers will often leave the driver in the bag, opting for accuracy over distance (average Driving Distance was 276.8 yards; tour average was 285.1). Although the greens are small and possess the usual challenges of a Pete Dye design, they are not overly difficult to hit (Green in Regulation is 69.1%; tour average was 66.2%). A missed green is not too penal though, scrambling percentage was 62.0% (tour average was 58.5%).
The Course Table on DataGolf suggests that TPC Louisiana was one of the easier courses on tour before the Zurich became a team event. Overall, it has had the fifth lowest scoring average compared to any course on tour this season. It has the fourth easiest set of par 4s. The course has the fifth highest Driving Accuracy, the fifth most strokes gained on approach, and the fifth easiest greens to putt on. Also on approach, TPC Louisiana has the fifth most strokes gained from inside 150 yards, the second most strokes gained from outside 150, and the 5th most strokes gained from off the fairway but not in the rough. Around the greens, it has been the fourth easiest course when chipping from the rough. And on the greens, it was the second easiest course from 5 to 15 feet and the third easiest over 15 feet.
Datagolf.com also has TPC Louisiana as the fourth lowest Driving Distance on tour, but the second highest standard deviation. I take this to mean that it is primarily a less-than-driver course, but some golfers will opt for the driver at certain times.
The Weather
The weather looks like it could play a role at the Zurich. The current forecast is calling for light winds on Thursday, but the winds increase to 15-20 mph with 20+ mph gusts for the rest of the time. Highs will be in the 80s with mostly cloudy skies, but there is no rain the forecast as of now.
With winds at 15-20 mph with stronger gusts, you will want to keep an eye out for any wave stacking possibilities and think about rostering the wind specialists. When considering wave stacks, it is particularly important to pay attention to what is happening on Thursday because they play Four-ball on Thursday. Scores are significantly lower during Four-ball, so you will want to make sure that the golfers you roster are getting the best conditions on Thursday. If Thursday looks like it will be equal between the waves, then you will want to make sure your golfers are getting the best of it on Friday.
DFS Strategy
I indicated in my introduction that I think the best strategy this week might be to just take a pass. Team golf is such a peculiar event that it is hard to rely on our regular tools to help build our player pool. I am sure there are people out there that know how to do it, but most of us are not going to be able build proper models accounting for two-man teams. Recent form can help us determine who is currently playing well, but will that form hold when put into a team atmosphere? Course history can give us insight into who has performed well here, but there is not much data to work with and teams tend to change. It is simply hard to make any informed decisions. On the other hand, if DraftKings is going to host contests, somebody has to win the money; if you can figure out an effective way to build lineups, you could have a significant edge.
I am going to be sitting this one out, but I know some of you will not be able to resist the urge, so I will share my thoughts on how I would approach this event. The Zurich was part of the Carbon Cup schedule (RIP), so I do have a little experience. It is not much, but I will share what I’ve got.
As usual, I would start by putting together my Recent Form and Course History spreadsheets and building my Course Fit model. I would keep my model simple this week, and target ballstrikers and aggressive play. As a team event, low scoring has dominated the Zurich, you need to target golfers that keep the ball in play, so they can attack pins and make birdies. Since hitting the greens and around-the-green play are easy at TPC Louisiana, I would leave around-the-greens stats out of my model. If teams are relying on their short game, they will not be making the birdies they need to stay in contention anyway. TPC Louisiana is the type of course that can turn into a putting contest. Even though putting is easy there, I want to at least confirm that the golfers I roster are comfortable putting on Poa trivialis.
Here are the statistics that I would use:
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Opportunities Gained
Proximity 175-200 and 200+ yards
Putting on Poa trivialis
Birdie or Better Gained
Par 5 Scoring
Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards
A quick note on the statistics. TPC Louisiana requires positional play off the tee, but the fairways are easy to hit, so I do not think we need to look at Driving Distance or Accuracy. Approximately 17% of approach shots come from 175-200 and almost 30% come from over 200+ yards. Opportunities Gained and Birdies or Better are also good proxies for aggressiveness. All of the par 3s fall into the 200-225 range.
My next step would usually be to use my Course Fit model to identify golfers that warrant further investigation. I would use the statistics, Recent Form data and Course History to identify golfers that I want in my player pool. I would then use projected ownerships and possible wave advantages to finalize my pool. This week would be different.
Instead of looking at my Course Fit rankings, I would first look at the raw statistics and try to identify teams that complement each other. We want to avoid golfers with similar skill sets; two aggressive golfers will probably get in a lot of trouble, or two non-aggressive types will not give themselves enough looks to go low. Golfers that are strong off the tee, but not strong with their long irons, should be paired with golfers that are strong with their long irons.
After identifying teams that complement each other and fit the course well, I would then add possibilities by identifying the teams with two golfers coming in with good form, and eliminating any teams that have two golfers coming in with poor form. I would then go to the Course History data, identifying any teams with good history and eliminating any teams with poor history. My hope is to identify at least a couple of teams with good course history that are also coming in with good form.
It is definitely more art than science this week.
If I am still looking for golfers, I would fall back on the narratives. There are quite a few you can turn to. Anybody that has played in the Ryder Cup or Presidents Cup has team experience at the highest level of golf. We can also try to identify teammates that are personal friends; familiarity with their playing partner could help produce positive results. The same could also go for teams that are also former college teammates, or from the same country (outside of the U.S.). I have heard some PGA touts talk about rostering golfers that play the same type of golf ball; it could help during alternate shot since they will be comfortable with the nuances of the ball.
Once I get a suitable number of teams that I am interested in, that is when I would start thinking about roster construction and leverage.
For roster construction, I would ignore my Roster Construction matrix. I think stars-and-scrubs is how you want to start your builds. Up until last year, the winning teams always had one, and sometimes two, of the top golfers in the field. I would start my player pool with a few of the top teams; I would go as far as to try to get two of them in my lineup, but without knowing the pricing, I am not sure if that is realistic.
As always, we should be on the lookout for ways to get leverage on our opponents, but I do not think this is a week that you really have to work hard to find leverage. If you go with a stars-and-scrubs build (or even a super stars-and-scrubs build), you will have to use low-priced golfers to fill out your lineups. The stars will be chalky this week and a few low-priced teams will pick up some steam, but the rest of the low-priced golfers should come at reduced ownership. Like we do every week; check the projected ownerships to identify the chalk and then find the pivots. If you avoid the low-priced chalk, or if one of the top teams does not get much ownership, you should differentiate yourself enough to win a contest outright.
I also think most DFS players will go with the stars-and-scrubs build, so you can also get leverage by going with a balanced build.
If you are looking for another way to get leverage, you could target golfers that are low on the priority list. They should come in at lower ownership but could also be highly motivated. There are 160 golfers in the field, so organizers must dig deep to fill it out. The golfers at the bottom of the priority list might see this as a good opportunity to improve their status and come in with some extra motivation. At the same time, more secure golfers may view this as a fun event and take it a little less seriously.
Finally, I have already stated this a couple times, but I will do it one more time for good measure; I am protecting my bankroll this week and not playing. Somebody has to win the money though, so I would not be mad if you try.
That’s all I have, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@glzisk) for any updates.
Have a great week!