Remember, when we think about getting leverage, we’re trying to identify what other DFS players are going to do and use that information to our advantage. In general, we’re going to get highly-owned golfers into our cash games and lower-owned golfers into our GPPs. The names getting into our GPPs might make you squeamish, but differentiating yourself from the hoards is how to win these contests.
I’m using DraftKings pricing.
The first thing we need to consider when searching for leverage this week is the size and strength of the field. Since the WGC invitationals feature small fields made up of the best golfers in the field, we are going to see elevated ownerships everywhere. The top of the price range will get more ownership than we usually see, but the dregs of the 6k range will even get a few percent ownership. So, unlike other weeks, it will not be enough to sniff out the low-owned golfer of a range because they’re still going to be 5% owned. Unless you want to go diving into the bowels of the 6k range, we’re going to have to use a couple of different strategies to gain leverage.
First, we can go with the ‘die on this hill’ strategy. With this strategy we pick a golfer that we like and put them in a ton of lineups, relatively. If you really like Collin Morikawa, and his projected ownership is 25%, you can put him in 50% of lineups and get some leverage. The idea is that, even though Morikawa will be in a lot of lineups, you’ll have so many lineups that some of them will have to be unique and have some win equity.
The other strategy is to leave some of your budget unspent. Instead of spending all $50,000, only spend $48,000. The trickery behind this strategy is assuming that your opponents will always try to spend as much as they can. You’ll end up with leverage because you are putting together unique combinations of golfers, even though they may be highly owned.
This may be a good week to try playing the chalk. If everybody is clamoring to find ways to get leverage because of the odd field, things may go so far in that direction that playing the chalk is actually getting you leverage (head-exploding emoji).
Quick note: in a past newsletter, I described how I identify chalk, cash plays, gpp plays, and leverage plays based off ownership projections; I’m doing the same this week, but the scale has moved to account for the elevated ownerships.
10k+:
It looked like Brooks Koepka was going to be the chalk of the group, but there was some late breaking news that he skipped the pro-am and cancelled his media obligation; I think he’ll still get a lot of ownership, but maybe more in the cash game range than the chalk range. I think everybody else is going to come in that 15-20% range, making everybody cash viable. If you want to squeeze any leverage out of this range, Fantasy National currently has Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele with the lowest projected ownership; both performed well in my model and I’m not concerned about the travel for these two.
9k:
Daniel Berger and Louis Oosthuizen will be the chalk on the strength of their current forms and course histories. Based on the chatter from the touts, Scottie Scheffler could see chalk levels too. His stats aren’t too shabby either, but there were a number of touts pointing out the Scottie steps up for the big events and plays down to the smaller ones. If you’re willing to take on crazy risk, you could get a lot of leverage by playing Bryson DeChambeau. I can’t recommend it, however. He’s spent the past year plus, treating his body like a temple and now he’s coming off a bout with Covid; I have to imagine his calibrations will be off for a little bit. The other leverage spot, according to projections on Fantasy National, is Hideki Matsuyama. I’m not sure exactly what the rub is; he was middle of the road in my model and he played in Tokyo, so maybe he just isn’t popping for many people, but I’ll get some exposure. Everybody else in this range should be cash game viable.
8k:
Webb Simpson and Abraham Ancer will be cash game viable. I think Corey Conners, Matt Fitzpatrick, Shane Lowry, and Joaquin Niemann are fine for GPPs, but you will need to find leverage elsewhere if you roster them. Everybody else in this range is in a good spot to get you some needed leverage, you might have to hold your nose when you click their names though.
7k:
The 7k range also provides a good amount of leverage spots. Jason Kokrak, Harris English, and Sergio Garcia will get enough ownership to be cash game viable. Brian Harman has been getting a lot of love from the touts, so even though Fantasy National currently has him projected at 10%, I think he’ll end up with more than enough ownership to make him cash viable. Everybody else in this range should give you some leverage in your GPPs. Marc Leishman appears to be getting the least amount of love, so if you’re trolling for leverage in this range; Leishman is the way to go.
6k:
The projected ownership is concentrated around Sam Burns, and he’s the only 6k golfer that I’m hearing from the touts consistently. I think he’s the one golfer in this range that we should avoid in our GPPs (unless you want to use the strategies described above). It looks like everybody else in this range is going to be less than 10% owned, which is probably enough leverage for this field. I’m personally going with Wilco Nienaber in this range; he worked well for me at Congaree and he’s min. priced, I just can’t help myself. I also like Aaron Rai; he was the highest 6k golfer in my model and passed the sniff test. If you’re really digging for a lot of leverage from the 6k range and want a sub 3% golfer, you have to go below 6.4k, and even there it looks like Jim Herman could get 5%!
Have fun building lineups and good luck!